All eyes are on Tropical Storm Erin, which formed in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa Monday morning, as it moves west across the ocean.
The tropical system is expected to develop into a hurricane by Thursday night before strengthening into a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher by Sunday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The question on everyone’s mind Tuesday is how will the storm impact the U.S. East Coast, including Florida.
Erin is more than 500 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of Tuesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, NHC said.
It’s too early to know how the system might affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as it steers west, though the risk to these areas increases as Erin moves closer to them by the weekend, NHC forecasters said.
“There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States and Bermuda next week,” the agency said.
While forecasters generally agree that Erin will continue its trek west over the next few days, it’s too early to say where it will go from there.
Several models — including the most recent run of the European model — show the storm staying slightly farther south and west before turning north early next week, Shane Hinton, meteorologist with CBS News’ NEXT Weather team, said.
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Erin will likely track north of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. After this, high pressure to the north is forecast to shift east, allowing an opening for the system to turn north by early next week, Hinton said.
“Historically, only 5 (percent) of storms where Erin started hit the U.S. They usually turn north,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post. “Honestly though, we're probably (three) days away from seeing how strong (or weak) a blocking high will be. If it moves and weakens, Erin should lift north.”
Models show a trough coming from the north that will weaken the high-pressure dome currently moving the storm across the Atlantic, Matt Devitt with WINK Weather wrote in a Facebook post.
“Tropical systems like to avoid highs and go towards the path of least resistance which … (creates … a) ‘potential escape alley.’ That is projected by most models to pick Erin up north,” Devitt wrote.
He added, “Although that's been a great trend, any change in the speed, strength and the positioning of these players on the field would cause models to shift gradually. While the US East Coast is not yet out of the woods, the current model majority is positive and in our favor for now (Bermuda still needs to monitor).”
Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Facebook post that “there is little change to the thinking behind the track forecast” as of Tuesday morning.
“Erin will continue to move generally west along the south side of a strong Atlantic ridge,” he wrote. “Over time, that ridge should weaken and shift a bit to the east, which will allow Erin to gain latitude. There is still uncertainty of when that will happen and to what degree. While the chances of landfall in Florida are low, there is greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week.”