Though Hurricane Erin will remain offshore of the U.S. East Coast, the category two storm is expected to grow in size and will cause life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding to communities from Florida all the way to New England this week, forecasters said.
Erin's large size and winds are generating swells that can reach 50 feet (the height of a five-story building) or more near the center of the storm and spread outward, AccuWeather said. Swells will reach 5-10 feet near shore along Florida's Atlantic coast.
Hurricane Erin's main impact on Florida will be dangerous high surf and life-threatening rip currents along the state's east coast through the middle of the week, FOX Weather said. While no direct landfall or wind impacts are expected for Florida, the storm's large size will create hazardous beach conditions, and officials urge swimmers and boaters on the East Coast to be cautious.
"Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days," the National Hurricane Center said. "Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags."
While experts watch to see exactly how close the storm gets to the coastal U.S., they’re also eyeing two waves coming off the coast of Africa behind Erin for potential tropical development.
The system has wavered in strength since forming as a hurricane Friday morning and exploding into a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds by Saturday morning. Erin has weakened, reintensified and weakened again since then; as of Tuesday morning, it’s a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It’s likely to strengthen again and to regain major hurricane status by midweek, AccuWeather said.
Though Erin has lost wind intensity in recent days, “the size of the storm has grown dramatically. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend outward more than 230 miles from the center of the storm during the middle of the week,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours on Tuesday, and are possible in parts of the Central Bahamas, NHC said.
Erin’s outer bands are bringing heavy rains to the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday and through Tuesday night for the Bahamas, meteorologists said. Flash and urban flooding are possible.
The storm, which is curving north, will pass between the U.S. coast and Bermuda, which will feel impacts from the tropical system Wednesday into Friday.
Erin will move closest to the U.S. on Thursday, tracking 150 to 250 miles east of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, according to AccuWeather. The area could see wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph, several feet of storm surge, and waves that could reach 15 to 20 feet.
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“People should follow evacuation orders. Hurricane Erin is expected to blast parts of the Outer Banks with 60 to 80 mph wind gusts, several feet of storm surge, and waves that could reach 15 to 20 feet,” DaSilva said. “Coastal flooding and surge could wash away dunes and leave roads submerged. These dangerous conditions could leave roads impassable for days, making rescues and evacuations nearly impossible.”
Dangerous and powerful rip currents from the system will impact the entire U.S. coastline, he added.
Two tropical waves behind Erin are being watched for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
A wave near the Leeward Islands in the central tropical Atlantic has a 60 percent chance of strengthening over the next week and a 10 percent chance of developing over the next two days, the NHC said.
This system, which is moving west-northwest at 20 mph, is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday morning, forecasters said. Environmental conditions are conducive for developing into a tropical depression by the end of the week or this weekend.
The second wave, located a few hundred miles to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, has a 30 percent chance of developing over the next two days, NHC said.
This system, moving west at 15 mph, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday morning.
While current conditions are favorable for the area to develop over the next couple of days, “the system could encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its development chances” by the end of the week, the NHC said.
It’s too soon to predict either system’s strength or exact track, experts said.
“Decent amount of dust in their path. Any development is expected to be slow. Just too early to get a feel on where they'll go,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a Facebook post.
Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Facebook post, “A tropical wave … has a chance for developing as it nears the Greater Antilles by the end of the week. It looks like the environment in the wake of Erin will be marginal for significant development. If something does develop, there is a large model spread on the eventual track. We have several days to watch this and fine tune the forecast. Another wave … coming off Africa will not be developing for several days, if it develops at all. Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint.”