The Atlantic is facing another above-normal hurricane season in 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts, and the Grand Strand could see storms, flooding and more.
The hurricane season, which started June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30, could bring up to 19 named storms and five major hurricanes, according to NOAA’s 2025 outlook.
“The outlook certainly does include higher-than-normal chances of storms for this year, and that’s mainly keyed on the fact that the water temperatures across the Atlantic are warmer than normal across most of the oceans,” said meteorologist Tim Armstrong with the National Weather Service’s Wilmington Office. “Heat, of course, being the fuel for those storms, so with more heat, there’s the potential for more storms and stronger storms, if they do develop.”
Early in the Atlantic hurricane season, scientists look at general impacts to the Caribbean, Gulf and East Coast, but can’t predict specific storm paths. Here’s what experts know about the Grand Strand’s 2025 hurricane season so far.
NOAA calls for a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. For the Grand Strand, an above-normal season could be similar to other hurricane seasons in recent years.
“We’ve had multiple years in a row now where the number of storms we’ve seen across the Atlantic Ocean has been higher than normal,” Armstrong said. “It really kind of started back in the late 1990s, when we started noticing an uptick in the number of storms relative to what had been observed in the decades past, and we’re still in that active period now.”
With 70% confidence, NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms will develop, which are characterized by winds of at least 29 mph. Six to 10 of those named storms are predicted to develop into hurricanes, which have winds of 74 mph or higher. According to NOAA, three to five could become major hurricanes — category 3, 4 or 5 — with winds of 111 mph or higher.
An average year has about 14 tropical storms, seven of which become hurricanes. The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, which was set in 2020. For comparison, last year’s Atlantic hurricane season brought 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. In 2024, both Debby and Helene lashed the Grand Strand with heavy rain and strong winds.
Although the area was spared the worst of the storms’ devastation, secondary impacts hit Myrtle Beach hard.
“Going back to 2018, we’ve had a number of, if not direct impacts, peripheral impacts from storms every year,” Armstrong said. “So this may be similar to what we have seen over the past five or six years, where we’ll have a tropical storm or hurricane warning at some point during the season along the coast for a storm that either passes directly overhead or very, very close by.”
While it’s too early to say what paths future hurricanes will take, storm paths that miss the Grand Strand can still devastate the area with tornadoes and floods, which could be worsening.
“Even a peripheral impact of these storms can bring devastation in some way to our area. It doesn’t have to be a direct impact,” Armstrong said. “Last year with Hurricane Helene went from the Gulf Coast through the western Carolinas, but even out here at the coast, we had bands of heavy rain and tornadoes from that, even though the storm center itself stayed hundreds of miles west of us.”
Hurricane veterans may notice rainfall and flooding seem more severe than they once did. Matthew and Florence drenched the Carolinas and in 2024, Debby dumped more than 20 inches of rain across the Waccamaw River Basin. That could be connected to climatological changes.
“Over the past several decades, rainfall rates with hurricanes seem to be increasing, and that’s likely tied to climate change that is continuing every year as we go on,” Armstrong said. “The climate is getting warmer, and a warmer atmosphere can hold additional water … a hurricane developing in a warmer atmosphere can actually produce heavier rainfall.”
Beyond hurricane winds, that heavy rainfall contributes to flooding risks in the Myrtle Beach area, particularly around Conway. Over the past decade, when hurricanes and other named storms dumped excess water into the Waccamaw River, it’s created “tremendous issues with flooding.”
Hurricane season is here and for those who don’t have a storm plan, it’s essential to be prepared. According to the South Carolina Emergency Management Division (SCEMD), the Palmetto State is among the most vulnerable states for hurricanes and tropical storms.
“This is the time to begin preparedness, now,” Armstrong said, “so that when the storm does happen, perhaps later in August and September, you’ve already got a plan in place to protect yourself and your family.”
Establishing multiple ways of receiving emergency alerts–like wireless mobile alerts, NOAA weather radios and local broadcast TV and radio–is essential for staying informed. SCEMD offers emergency alerts through text, call and mail through its CodeRED program.
Armstrong recommends identifying your home’s elevation, flooding risk and evacuation zone, which state and local authorities use to announce evacuations.
Coastal areas in Horry and Georgetown counties are in Evacuation Zones A, B or C. Residents can find their zone on the South Carolina Hurricane Guide website or the SC Emergency Manager mobile app.
Although storm conditions can change planned evacuation zones, it’s a good idea to learn local predetermined routes. Those are also available on the South Carolina Hurricane Guide.
And for those who live with others, the Centers for Disease Control recommends creating a family emergency plan, with meeting locations and evacuation destinations.
“We are in an area that does see hurricane impacts, and it’s time now to start thinking about what you would do should a hurricane start to approach the Myrtle Beach area later this season,” Armstrong said.
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June 5, 2025 5:05 PM
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