Hurricane Erin remains a Category 3 storm but is expected to intensify again while growing in size, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday evening.
Dare County officials announced a state of emergency on Sunday and ordered mandatory evacuations for visitors and residents on Hatteras Island, and Hyde County did the same for Ocracoke Island, which is south of Hatteras.
Officials are urging visitors to begin evacuating at 10 a.m. Monday from Hurricane Evacuation Zone A, which includes the unincorporated villages of Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco and Hatteras.
Residents are to begin evacuating at 8 a.m. Tuesday.
In neighboring Hyde County, officials ordered ordered visitors to begin evacuating at 8 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 17, and residents beginning at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, Aug. 19.
Over the weekend, Erin had intensified rapidly from Category 3 to Category 5 in the span of a few hours to reach sustained winds of 160 mph. But the storm weakened in intensity on Aug. 17 back to Category 3 with sustained winds of 125 mph.
“It’s forecast to gain some strength in the next couple of days and return to Category 4 status,” National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said in a video update Sunday.
Erin is not projected to make a direct landfall on the U.S., forecasters say. But because the storm is expected to gain size and strength, its wind field likely will have effects along the North Carolina coast, especially the Outer Banks.
Weather forecasters are urging people to prepare for the arrival of the first major hurricane of the season.
Tracking Erin’s progress
As of 5 p.m. Sunday, Erin was about 275 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for several Caribbean islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center said Erin will produce heavy rainfall on Sunday across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before diminishing on Monday.
The rain could lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, landslides or mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters expected Erin to continue moving toward the west-northwest at about 13 mph on Sunday. Its center was expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday and Monday.
Will Erin hit NC or the East Coast?
The latest experimental cone forecast from the National Hurricane Center doesn’t show Erin making direct landfall on the East Coast. But weather forecasters are warning the storm will likely impact all area beaches on North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
Rhome said a tropical storm warning for the Outer Banks may be required as soon as Monday. The impacts of Erin will start Tuesday, peak Wednesday into Thursday, and diminish late week.
“While we still expect Erin to track well offshore, impacts along the Outer Banks due to waves and coastal flooding are expected,” the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Newport/Morehead said in a social media post Sunday afternoon. “The risk for high rip currents will begin tomorrow and continue through the week.”
The National Weather Service warned that coastal flooding in North Carolina could be a prolonged duration event.
Forecasters said there’s potential for NC-12 and secondary roads along the Outer Banks, in particular on Hatteras and Ocracoke islands, to be impassable and/or inaccessible for several days.
Numerous roads will likely be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will likely be submerged. Forecasters advised people along the coast to consider moving cars to higher ground.
Life-threatening rip currents are expected the majority of the week along the Outer Banks.
“If you’re going to the beach this week, swim near a lifeguard, check local beach conditions and just be mindful and safe,” Rhome said.
Portions of Highway 12 on Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands are most at risk from flooding.
Atlantic hurricane season 2025
Erin is the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1-Nov. 30.
It is also the first hurricane of the season. The next named tropical cyclone would be Fernand.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in August updated its predictions on hurricane activity.
The expected total number of named storms dropped. Now, NOAA is expecting up to 18 named storms, down from 19. And instead of six to 10 hurricanes, forecasters predict there will be between five and nine hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes. NOAA’s previous prediction, issued in May, included three to five major hurricanes.
A typical Atlantic hurricane season includes 14 named storms, and NOAA said the likelihood of above-normal activity this year is 50%.
Colorado State University’s latest forecast predicts 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, this season. That’s down from its April forecast of 17 named storms and nine hurricanes.