(This story was updated to add new information.)
Hurricane Erin exploded into a Category 5 storm Saturday, Aug. 16, strengthening from a weak hurricane to a monster storm with sustained winds of 160 mph in just 24 hours.
In a release, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Erin was moving over ocean waters that are hotter than the historical average. These warm waters, combined with little in the way of dry air and wind shear, have created "near perfect" conditions for rapid intensification.
Although Erin is expected to stay well away from land as the storm slowly curves north in the coming days, the sheer size and strength of the hurricane means it will still impact the U.S. mainland.
"Beaches along the entire East Coast, from Florida to New England and Atlantic Canada, will likely experience rough surf and dangerous rip currents as Erin tracks north and eventually northeast," DaSilva said.
According to the 5 p.m. storm update Saturday, Aug. 16, from the National Hurricane Center, Erin was roughly 175 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west at 15 mph with sustained winds of nearly 160 mph.
An expected swing to the north in the coming hours and days should keep the strengthening storm away from the North Carolina coast, although impacts from Erin are still expected to be felt in the Cape Fear region.
“People along the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England and Atlantic Canada, as well as Bermuda, should monitor forecast updates closely into next week,” AccuWeather's DaSilva said.
Meanwhile, the hurricane center is monitoring a broad and weak area of low pressure located off the coast of North Carolina. The system is producing disorganized shower activity.
"Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or two while it moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream," the hurricane center reported. "By Monday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development."
Boaters could start to feel impacts from Erin as early as Monday, Aug. 18.
"Long period swells from Hurricane Erin ... could produce hazardous boating conditions," according to the National Weather Service in Wilmington.
Potential areas of impact include Frying Pan Shoals, the mouths of Winyah Bay and the Cape Fear River, as well as area inlets to and from the Atlantic Ocean.
What to expect in Wilmington this weekend
Here's a look at the upcoming forecast from the National Weather Service in Wilmington.
Are you prepared for a hurricane?
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November. Even if this system doesn't pose a threat to the N.C. coast, it's never too early to be prepared.
Heightened rip current risk
As Erin approaches the U.S. mainland, strong swells will increase the chance of dangerous rip currents hundreds of miles in front of the storm's actual location. That, along with beach erosion, could be among Erin's biggest impacts on the Cape Fear region.
Rip currents, the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the Carolinas, can be difficult to spot, but beachgoers should look for water that is darker in color, choppy and leaves a break in the incoming wave pattern. They form at low spots or breaks in sandbars, piling up water between the breaking waves and the beach. The water returns to sea through the rip current. Another clue may be a line of foam, seaweed or debris moving seaward.
If you find yourself caught in a rip current, do not swim against the current.
While it may be difficult to do, the U.S. Lifesaving Association says swimmers should "relax," noting the rip current will not pull them under. Swimmers should try swimming out of the current in a direction following the shoreline, or toward breaking waves, then at an angle toward the beach.
What if Erin brings heavy rains to the Cape Fear coast?
Water-soaked lawns and yards have been the name of the game for Southeastern North Carolina in recent weeks.
According to the weather service, through Friday more than 6 inches of rain had fallen at the Wilmington International Airport − where official weather readings are made − versus an average of 3.5 inches for the first 15 days of August. The Port City has seen a trace or more of rain 10 days this month. In July, ILM saw nearly 7.6 inches of precipitation compared to a normal average of 6.8 inches.
While that isn't too out of normal levels, it still means the Wilmington area is well watered. That more rain is scheduled to fall before any impacts of Erin are factored in warrants paying attention and preparing for possible flooding concerns, especially in areas prone to see standing water.
Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at [email protected] or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from the Green South Foundation and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.