CLEVELAND, Ohio — While it’s too early to know for sure, there are some hopeful signs for a white Christmas in Northeast Ohio.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest long-term outlook for Dec. 13 through Dec. 26 shows a 33% to 40% probability of above-average precipitation across the Great Lakes and Ohio.
This setup delivers no guarantees — but it at least raises the odds of storms moving through the region in the lead-up to Christmas.
At the same time, the outlook weakly favors below-normal temperatures across the northern United States, including in Ohio.
If the colder air materializes at the same time precipitation moves through, Northeast Ohio would have a better chance of seeing snow rather than rain. And it could potentially offer some snow cover on the ground heading into the holiday.
Still, these indications are modest and early. Long-range outlooks don’t predict individual storms, and temperatures aren’t currently expected to be too far below normal. A shift in timing, track or air mass in the days before Christmas could easily swing conditions toward rain, snow or something in between.
How often does Cleveland see a white Christmas?
Cleveland has logged 52 white Christmases since 1893, giving the city roughly a 39% historical chance of having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25, according to data from the National Weather Service in Cleveland.
That long-term rate reflects colder mid-20th-century winters that made holiday snow cover more common than it is today.
In more recent years, the trend has shifted slightly lower. Cleveland has seen three white Christmases in the past 10 years (2017, 2020 and 2022) and seven in the past 20 years, a pace that lines up with broader warming across December and generally milder late-month patterns.
Even so, the last decade has still produced a few notable examples.
In 2020, Cleveland Hopkins International Airport recorded 7 inches of snow depth on Christmas Day, and in 2022, an Arctic outbreak left 4 inches on the ground — reminders that one well-timed system can still deliver the classic holiday scene.
Expectations vs. reality
Expectations of a white Christmas tend to run higher than the numbers, thanks to a few factors.
“If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, it’s likely because most Christmas lore was invented in ‘The Little Ice Age’ and passed down as memories through generations,” writes Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior weather editor.
Much of the wintry imagery baked into holiday music and movies comes from a colder era, which helps explain why many people picture Christmas morning as snow-covered even though the odds in Northeast Ohio fall closer to 4-in-10.
Outside of oddball Christmas storms, however, chances of a white Christmas are becoming less likely as December temperatures trend warmer across much of the country, Ferrell noted.
Whether this year breaks the recent trend will come down to the timing of whatever cold air and storm systems line up in the days just before Dec. 25.
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