WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. —
The 2025 Atlantic tropical season begins on June 1, but leading hurricane researchers are already giving us an early look on how the season may unfold. Both North Carolina State University (NC State) and Colorado State University (CSU) have released projections indicating near or above average storm activity again for 2025, underscoring the need for preparedness along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf regions.
North Carolina State University Forecast
NC State University's research team is projecting an active season with 12 to 15 named storms. Of these, six to eight may develop into hurricanes, with two to three storms potentially becoming major hurricanes. These figures are considered to be near the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes.
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2025 NC State Atlantic Tropical Forecast
The forecast also highlights increased activity in the Gulf of Mexico, predicting one to three named storms in the region, with one to two becoming hurricanes and one storm potentially growing into a major hurricane. These predictions are near the historical averages of three named storms and two hurricanes. NC State's forecast methodology incorporates over a century of historical data, analyzing past hurricane position and intensity, sea-surface temperatures, and weather patterns.
Colorado State University Forecast
CSU's April outlook anticipates 17 named storms this season, including nine hurricanes, with four expected to become major hurricanes. This projection represents activity approximately 125% above the 30-year average. While slightly less active than the 2024 season, the forecast remains among the highest ever issued by CSU in April.
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2025 Colorado State University Atlantic Tropical Forecast
The elevated forecast is attributed to climatic factors favoring increased storm development in the Atlantic basin. The 2025 season is expected to transition from La Niña to neutral conditions by August. A neutral pattern typically supports a near average tropical count, but spring sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern and central Atlantic are already warmer than normal. Warm SSTs generally contribute to above normal tropical activity.
The full CSU report also gave detailed probabilities of storm impact for each coastal state this year, including North Carolina.
CSU also released early detailed probabilities of a storm tracking within 50 miles of North Carolina in 2025:
Researchers went on to say that there is also an above-average probability for major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.
CSU also released an estimate of landfall probabilities of a major hurricane for the upcoming season:
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2025 Atlantic Basin Storm names
While these forecasts do not specify landfall locations, the increased activity underscores the importance of preparedness. Both research institutions will provide updated forecasts as the season progresses.
CSU's next updates are scheduled for June 11, July 9, and August 6. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release its Atlantic tropical forecast in May.