As many conference tournaments around college basketball wrap up, there are only a few automatic bids left up for grabs in the field of 68. However, the NCAA Tournament is not set yet, and there are multiple teams still fighting for their season with hopes of playing on the biggest stage next week and beyond.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.
After Colorado State jumps from potential bid stealer to dangerous tournament team and St. John’s reaches the 2-seed line, there is plenty to sort out on the bubble. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Bracketology
Bracket will be updated after each round of games.
All projections are based on data through 2:30 am ET on Mar. 16Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, FloridaLast four byes: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Utah StateLast four in: West Virginia, SDSU, North Carolina, TexasFirst four out: Xavier, Indiana, Boise State, Ohio State
First Four (Dayton)
16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)16 MOUNT ST. MARY’S (MAAC) vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC)11 West Virginia vs. 11 SDSU12 North Carolina vs. 12 Texas
South (Atlanta)
Lexington1 Auburn vs. 16 AMERICAN/ALABAMA STATE8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 COLORADO STATE (MWC)Seattle5 Michigan vs. 12 North Carolina/Texas4 Iowa State vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)Denver6 Missouri vs. 11 UC SAN DIEGO (Big West)3 Arizona vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)Cleveland7 Kansas vs. 10 Oklahoma2 Michigan State vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)
1-seed Auburn
Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn has wrapped thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it took to ease the minds before looking to add a conference title.
2-seed Michigan State
Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome of the remaining championship weekend results. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.
West (San Francisco)
Raleigh1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)8 UConn vs. 9 BaylorProvidence5 BYU vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)Wichita6 Louisville vs. 11 Vanderbilt3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)Providence7 Illinois vs. 10 Arkansas2 ST. JOHN’S vs. 15 BRYANT (AEC)
1-seed Florida
Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.
2-seed St. John’s
St. John’s completes the run through the Big East Tournament to improve their resume enough to surpass the likes of Kentucky and Texas Tech on the way to a potential 2-seed berth on Selection Sunday. The overall record and close analytic numbers build their case.
East (Newark)
Raleigh1 DUKE (ACC) vs. 16 MOUNT ST. MARY’S/ST. FRANCIS PA8 Mississippi State vs. 9 CreightonSeattle5 Clemson vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)4 Purdue vs. 13 GRAND CANYON (WAC)Milwaukee6 Ole Miss vs. 11 VCU (A10)3 Wisconsin vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)Cleveland7 UCLA vs. 10 New Mexico2 Tennessee vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)
1-seed Duke
Duke will now have the opportunity to make its case as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament following the loss by Auburn. While it is unclear if another win would do enough, the conversation would grow louder. The Blue Devils are now playing without Cooper Flagg in the ACC Tournament, limiting any potential move down with a loss.
2-seed Tennessee
Tennessee has made its case as a viable candidate for the final 1-seed spot, but will still likely need a win in the SEC Tournament championship to secure the title with Alabama and Florida on the other side of the bracket ready to improve a rival resume later in the day.
Midwest (Indianapolis)
Wichita1 HOUSTON (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)8 Marquette vs. 9 GeorgiaDenver5 Oregon vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)4 Texas A&M vs. 13 LIPSCOMB (ASUN)Milwaukee6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia/SDSU3 Kentucky vs. 14 TROY (SBC)Lexington7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Utah State2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)
1-seed Houston
Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering championship weekend, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.
2-seed Alabama
Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.