While recent rainfall across parts of Central and South Texas has provided some temporary relief, it has not solved the region’s drought issues. Lake levels continue to break records for the wrong reasons — they’re alarmingly low.
Canyon Lake, which is located about 40 miles northeast of San Antonio, has reached new record low water levels for the past 10 days in a row, dating back to March 30. As of Tuesday, the surface elevation of the lake sits at 878.43 feet above mean sea level. That is more than 30.5 feet below capacity, the lowest level since the reservoir was filled in 1968.
Canyon Lake is considered to be only 47.1% full. The last time the lake reached full capacity was in November 2021. The lake fell under 50% of capacity for the first time this past January, and it has continued to fall ever since.
We’ve seen some rain lately, so why aren’t water levels rising? Unfortunately, rainfall has generally not been heavy enough to make any significant improvements to lake levels. In the past 30 days, the Canyon Lake area has picked up between an inch and 2 inches of rain, most of which got quickly absorbed into the dry ground, resulting in minimal runoff into the lake.
The pattern is similar upstream along the Guadalupe River, which flows into Canyon Lake from the west. Rainfall totals between Spring Branch and Kerrville have ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 inches over the past month
While the rainfall has been helpful in bringing some much-needed moisture into the Hill Country, it hasn’t been enough to boost river flow or lake inflow in a meaningful way.
Canyon Lake is a vital water source for communities along the Interstate 35 corridor. About 75% of the potable water used by San Marcos comes from the lake, according to the city . As a result of the ongoing drought, San Marcos has been under Stage 3 water restrictions since October. Nearby New Braunfels remains in Stage 2.
Currently, Canyon Lake waters levels are falling by about an inch every three days, a trend that will continue unless the region can pick up significant, sustained rainfall soon.
Medina Lake
The situation is even more dire at Medina Lake, which sits about 50 miles southwest of Canyon Lake, on the border of Medina and Bandera counties.
As of Tuesday, the surface elevation of Medina Lake has fallen to 970.05 feet above mean sea level. That is 94.15 feet below capacity, a new all-time low for the lake.
Medina Lake is considered a paltry 2.2% full. The lake has been less than 5% full since July 2023. The last time Medina Lake was considered full was in July 2019.
However, Medina Lake did see lake levels rise by nearly 6 feet during the summer of 2024, but all of that progress was erased in the following nine months. Like Canyon Lake to the northeast, Medina Lake is currently dropping at about an inch every three days.
Drought status and forecast
As you’ve probably guessed, the recent rainfall also hasn’t been enough to alleviate drought in the soils of Central and South Texas. San Antonio, along with much of the Hill Country, remains in exceptional drought, the highest level of dryness as measured by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
So far this year, San Antonio has recorded 3.75 inches of rain, which is 2.84 inches below the normal amount for this point in the year. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though.
Since August 2024, the city has fallen 12.83 inches behind on its normal rainfall for that period. Zooming out even further, San Antonio has accumulated a staggering 44.79-inch rainfall deficit from normal since the beginning of 2022, the highest such deficit for any large city in Texas.
Unfortunately, high atmospheric pressure is expected to keep rain chances near zero over at least the next seven days. Long-range weather models do point at the possibility of thunderstorms around April 16-20, but stay tuned to expressnews.com/weather for updates on that as we get closer.
April 8, 2025|Updated April 8, 2025 1:51 p.m.
Newsroom Meteorologist
Anthony Franze is a native Texan and very passionate about covering any weather that is thrown at him. He can be reached at [email protected].
Anthony earned a degree in Meteorology from Valparaiso University in 2017. He has worked as a broadcast meteorologist for six years, one at NBC Montana and the next five at NewsWest 9 in Midland before joining the Express-News in July 2023.
In his free time, Anthony enjoys watching sports, checking out local restaurants and breweries, and getting outside whenever the heat allows for it. If you have any story ideas, questions about the weather or restaurant suggestions, drop him a line.
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