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Arctic blasts in January and February gave the Rio Grande Valley a bracing respite from the generally warmer and drier than normal conditions generally forecast for the period, but now it’s time for things to return to normal.
In the recently issued National Weather Service outlook for March through May, meteorologists predicted higher temperatures and lower precipitation than normal for deep South Texas and the Valley for the next three months, with heat risks concerns expected to begin growing April into May. Drought and dryness will continue to plague the region through spring, with areas west of I-69E likely to see severe to extreme drought levels, they said.
Meanwhile, Falcon and Amistad international reservoirs remained near historic lows at the end of February, and it’s near certain that total water storage will remain at or near record lows through May, the NWS said.
There’s a 60% to 80% chance that temperatures will skew warmer than normal, and a 30% to 50% chance that the period will also be drier than usual, meteorologists said.
“Confidence is medium-high, 50 to 70 percent, that drought/dryness will continue over deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through May,” they said.
As a result of the Jan. 20-22 Arctic blast and the Feb. 20-22 “overachieving cold episode,” the potential for wildfires is a big concern thanks to the “freeze-cured” grasses across much of the region, the NWS said, noting that the strength of cool/cold fronts through March and possibly into April will be a determining factor.
The warmer/drier-than-normal outlook in general does not rule out the possibility of showers and thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially in April and May, meteorologists said.
“Occasional cool fronts are expected to continue through March/April, however (they) will become weaker and weaker as we move forward in time, given our latitudinal position and increasing sun angles,” the NWS reported.
The forecast called for “difficult to dangerous boating and beach conditions” intermittently through March.
The reason the drier/warmer trend is likely to persist is because the current La Nina climate phase is expected to transition to an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral phase this spring, a situation that favors warmer-than-normal temperatures through at least May, the NWS said. La Nina is one of three phases of ENSO, the other two being El Nino and ENSO-neutral.
“Additionally, this setup favors an overall drier than normal pattern through the spring season,” according to meteorologists.
The same conditions in the equatorial Pacific caused by ENSO-neutral — combined with the location of the jet stream and heat ridge, tropical moisture influx, soil moisture and other weather and climate variables — will play a major role in what kinds of weather the Valley experiences this spring, including increased heat risks and heavy rain and flooding, the NWS said.