Home Care In Arlington, VA

The latest U.S. Census estimate shows Arlington's population growing, but it hasn't quite reached the 2020 level.

Michael O'Connell, Patch Staff

ARLINGTON, VA — More Northern Virginia counties and cities than not grew in 2023, according to new Census Bureau population estimates.

The Vintage 2023 report released March 14 showed more U.S. counties saw population growth than decline, with the fastest growth occurring in the South and population losses mostly concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, regions that saw their populations plunge with the pandemic.

In the Northern Virginia region, eight of the nine counties and independent cities grew, according to the estimates. That compares to four counties or cities that grew in 2022.

In Arlington County, the estimated population changed from 233,678 in 2022 to 234,162 in 2023. The population change was minimal and not yet recovered to the 238,814 population estimate in 2020.

Virginia's population overall increased from 8,679,099 to 8,715,698 in 2023, according to the Census estimate.

Find out what's happening in Arlingtonwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

Overall, 60 percent (1,876) of U.S. counties gained population in 2023, an increase from 52 percent (1,649) of counties that grew from 2021 to 2022.

Regions of the country that saw large numbers of people leaving during the early pandemic are starting to recover, Lauren Bowers, who heads the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch, said in a news release. At the same time, growth is slowing in some areas of the West, such as Arizona and Idaho.

The report also showed that 80 percent of U.S. counties saw populations grow through immigration. The highest numbers were in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and Harris County, Texas. All counties in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island experienced positive net international migration.

Florida saw growth in 96 percent of its 67 counties. Other states where a large percentage of counties grew were Idaho and Tennessee.

The 10 fastest-growing counties with a population of 20,000 or more were in the South — six in Texas, two in Georgia, and one each in South Carolina and Virginia. Virginia's New Kent County between Richmond and Hampton Roads ranked 10th among America's fastest growing counties.

Eight of the 10 counties that led the nation with the highest population increases were in Texas. At the same time, Maricopa County, Arizona, which had been the fastest growing county in 2022, dropped to No. 4, and Polk County, Florida, the only other non-Texas county in the top 10, came in at No. 5.

The fastest-declining counties of 20,000 or more were Lassen County, California, and Randolph County, Missouri. The population in Bronx County, New York, also continued to decline.

Los Angeles County, California, saw the greatest population loss in 2023, with 56,420 in 2023 — following a loss of 89,697 people in 2022. Kings, Queens, and Bronx counties in New York followed with population losses of 28,306; 26,362; and 25,332, respectively.

Among other large declines were Cook County, Illinois, which lost 24,494 people; Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, which lost 16,294 people; and Orange County, California, which lost 14,617 people.

The report noted that as the nation’s death rate declined in 2023 from pandemic-era highs, so did population decreases as a result of natural causes. Deaths outnumbered births in fewer counties in 2023, with 69 percent reporting a natural decrease in population, compared to 74 percent in 2022.

Births outnumbered deaths in nearly one-third (31 percent) of counties in 2023, led by Alaska and New Jersey. The counties with the highest levels of natural population increases in 2023 were Harris County, Texas; Los Angeles County, California; Dallas County, Texas; Kings County, New York; and Tarrant County, Texas.

Almost three-fourths (73 percent) of the nation’s 387 metro areas saw population growth from 2022 to 2023. Approximately 58 percent of the nation’s 538 “micro areas” — urban areas of 10,000-50,000 population — saw their populations increase.

The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area saw the estimated population increase from 6,265,891 to 6,304,975. In the Arlington-Alexandria-Reston, VA-WV subregion, population rose from 3,137,244 to 3,154,735.

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Arlington County will become the first municipality in Virginia to permanently implement ranked-choice voting in public elections, starting with the County Board primaries in June.

This week, the County Board unanimously approved using the method, which allows voters to pick multiple candidates and rank them in order of preference on their ballot, but only in primary elections. During counting, votes are allocated and reallocated on those preferences until a winner emerges.

Arlington ran a ranked-choice pilot during the June Democratic primary for the County Board, in which voters chose candidates for two seats. In 2020, the Virginia legislature approved changes that allowed counties and cities to use the system in local contests for city council and county board.

Other municipalities are watching Arlington’s experiment.

Libby Garvey, Arlington board vice chair, said she thinks the system is more democratic, breeds civility in elections and reduces extremism. She thinks it’s particularly helpful in races with large fields, where the victor in a traditional winner-take-all contest can win with a small fraction of the votes.

“It can reflect the electorate better,” Garvey said of ranked-choice voting.

However, Garvey said she does not support the use of ranked-choice voting in races with multiple seats because the counting and allocation of votes gets more convoluted and confusing.

Advocates cheered the permanent adoption of the system, saying it will allow the outcomes of primaries to better reflect the different factions within a party.

Ranked-choice voting has spread to two states and about 50 U.S. cities, said Deb Otis, director of policy and research at FairVote, a nonpartisan advocacy group.

“What we are seeing is majority winners or candidates who appeal to a broader group of voters,” Otis said. “We are seeing more positive campaigns. … We are seeing better representation for women and people of color and a much larger number of voters supported the person who ended up winning.”

Others have expressed reservations about the complexity of the vote tallying and whether the county has done enough to educate voters about how it works.

Natalie U. Roy, a candidate for the County Board in the June primary who was not one of the two winners, said she supports ranked-choice voting, but said Arlington’s rollout of the system has been uneven and has undermined voters’ confidence in it.

Roy said that it doesn’t make sense to offer ranked-choice voting in primaries but not the general election, and that many voters still don’t grasp how their ranked choices will be allocated in the final tally.

“It was a mess,” Roy said of the primary and its aftermath. “The training and public education needed to be more robust. People were really confused.”

That confusion prompted the Arlington County Board to halt extending ranked-choice voting for November’s general election, but some members said they would consider implementing it in general elections next year.

Arlington is using a system called proportional ranked choice. In that method, voters pick candidates and rank them in a preferred order on the ballot. Candidates who receive enough votes to pass a threshold for the number of open seats are elected. For one seat in Arlington, the threshold is 51 percent, two seats 34 percent, and so on.

Any votes above the threshold in multiple seat elections are allocated to voters’ second choice. After all the excess votes are distributed, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The votes for the eliminated candidate are allocated to those voters’ second-choice candidate.

The tabulation continues until all the seats are filled.

The June primary was a high-profile test for ranked-choice voting. Six candidates were vying for the Democratic nominations for two seats on the County Board, and the election was marked by clashing views over a decision by local lawmakers to eliminate single-family-only zoning.

Under the ranked-choice voting system, voters ended up nominating candidates on opposing sides of that fractious debate. There were only a slighter larger than normal number of spoiled ballots, indicating voters were filling out their ballots correctly.

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: How close are the County’s tax assessments to actual market values?

Answer: In January, Arlington announced that residential property tax assessments were increasing 3.2% across the entire County (this is overall, changes to individual home/land values will vary significantly). This change is meant to align with the increase in market values of Arlington homes, which based on my latest review of market performance for detached and condo properties, an overall 3.2% increase is accurate. Despite an accurate overall assessed value increase from 2023 to 2024, tax assessed values remain well below actual market values for most homes. In fact, 81% of homes sold in Arlington in 2023 sold for more than their most recent tax assessed value (notably, this is the exact same percentage as in 2022).

Arlington homes that sold in 2023 sold for an average of 10.2% (median 9%) above their most recent tax assessment.

Homeowners who own homes in the 22205 and 22207 zip codes (most of North Arlington) benefit the most by underassessments, with an average difference between 2023 sold prices and their most recent tax assessments of 16.5% and 16.2%, respectively, or over $160,500 and nearly $186,000, respectively. Owners of single-family homes and townhouses (13.2% average difference) benefit more from underassessments than condo owners (6.5% average difference).

If County assessments were representative of actual market values, the average Arlington homeowner would pay over $800 more per year in property taxes, so don’t forget to send the Department of Real Estate Assessments a thank you card!

The following chart shows much more the average home sold for in 2023 compared to its most recent tax assessed value (note: I’ve done some data clean-up like removing sales of new homes where the assessed value is still based on the original home’s value):

If you believe that the County’s assessment of your home’s value is too high, you have the right to appeal the assessed value; the deadline is March 1 each year.

If you’d like to discuss design trends, buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10CA

The real estate data company CoStar Group will move its headquarters from downtown D.C. to Arlington, its executives said Tuesday, marking another corporate relocation that could deal a blow to the District’s struggling central business area while boosting its Northern Virginia suburbs.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) approved nearly $5 million in public funds for the company to subsidize the relocation. CoStar, which employs about 650 people in its D.C. office, has purchased a Rosslyn office building that it plans to move into later this year.

“Virginia’s a great choice for a new corporate headquarters location,” Youngkin said in a news release announcing the move. “As states compete for business and jobs, the Commonwealth’s diverse, world-class talent, exceptional quality of life and stable business climate continues to stand out.”

CoStar will also pay nearly $14 million to Arlington to obtain sole use of an observation deck at its new building at 1201 Wilson Blvd., which had been open to the public since 2019. Pending approval from the Arlington County Board, that money would be used for a planned reconstruction of Rosslyn’s Gateway Park.

Downtown D.C. and Arlington’s business corridors have been contending with office vacancies and reduced foot traffic as employees opt to work from home and companies renegotiate their leases. The company’s relocation across the Potomac River — a move that officials had been teeing up since January — is likely to increase those worries in the District as it calms them in Northern Virginia.

D.C.’s suburbs, not just downtown, are feeling the crunch of remote work

The District is already bracing for the possible loss of its NBA and NHL teams from Capital One Arena to the Potomac Yard section of Alexandria, pending approval from state and local lawmakers. Last month, Fannie Mae said it will cut its lease short at a downtown office building near CoStar, potentially shifting its operations to Reston.

CoStar moved its headquarters from Bethesda to D.C. in 2010, receiving a more than $6.1 million, 10-year tax abatement from the District, according to the Washington Business Journal. After flipping its building at 1331 L Street NW for a $60 million profit, it remained there under a 15-year lease.

The company, which owns Loopnet, Apartments.com and Homes.com, has in the past decade rapidly grown its presence in Virginia, building and now expanding a 1,000-person research and operations hub in Richmond in exchange for up to $23 million in taxpayer dollars from Virginia. It employs about 6,200 people around the world.

“We’re incredibly thankful for our 14 years calling Washington, D.C. home, and we will continue to be a part of this community even as we move across the river to Arlington County,” Andy Florance, the company’s founder and chief executive, said in a statement.

For its move to Arlington, the company received a $1.25 million grant from one Virginia pool of taxpayer money meant for “deal-closing” funds, as well as $3.5 million from the Virginia Economic Development Incentive Grant.

Payments through that program are allocated based on the number of new jobs or capital investment created by a company’s relocation to the commonwealth, according to the Virginia Economic Development Partnership. The grants are not typically paid until the third year after a corporate move.

Arlington, which traditionally has relied on commercial buildings for about half its property tax revenue, has struggled since the pandemic with historically high office vacancy rates. About 9 million square feet of office space — or 21.5 percent of the county’s full stock — was empty as of last fall.

CoStar will occupy about 150,000 square feet of office space at its new property, which is known as Central Place Tower and is located across from the Rosslyn Metro station. The company purchased the 560,000-square-foot building from the real estate developer JBG Smith, which helped facilitate both the Alexandria arena deal and also sold Amazon its second headquarters in Arlington.

While the move is likely to help bring the total office vacancy numbers down, it is older buildings — not newer offices like Central Place Tower — that have been struggling the most to retain tenants amid a shift to hybrid and remote work.

Still, Arlington County Board Chair Libby Garvey (D) said in a statement that she was “thrilled to welcome CoStar Group to Rosslyn, where their presence is sure to have positive economic impacts and will help to strengthen the neighborhood — especially with the faster realization of a reconstructed Gateway Park.”

With a focus on the community’s needs and priorities, while addressing a shortfall in the coming fiscal year, County Manager Mark Schwartz proposed the FY 2025 budget to the County Board on Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. The proposal addresses guidance given by the Board, which directed the Manager to prepare a balanced budget that reflects County priorities while also acknowledging the economic pressures taxpayers and homeowners are experiencing.

$1.62 billion is proposed in General Fund spending, a 4.7 percent increase over FY 2024. The County’s General Fund Budget provides foundational services for the community including public safety, human services, environmental services, transportation, and schools.

The budget is based on 2.5 percent growth in real estate assessments (compared to 3.7 percent growth in 2023), and a 4.5 percent growth in overall tax revenue.

To balance the budget, the County Manager proposed nearly $10.1 million in budget reductions and operational efficiencies in two categories: reductions that will limit services in some less critical areas, and reductions that reflect changing demands and can be taken without impact on services. The proposed budget reduces a combination of 33 filled and vacant positions.

The proposed budget also recommends a 1.5 cent tax rate increase per $100 in assessed value, offset by the 1.7 cent reduction in the tax rate by moving to a stormwater utility fee. The proposed tax rate increase would fund priority needs that face our community—including affordable housing and eviction prevention, teen substance use and mental health intervention and prevention investments, and investments in the environment.

"Our community remains vibrant, and while we are now four years removed from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, challenges still remain, namely increased office market vacancies and stress on our social service network," said Schwartz. "This budget proposal helps us meet the needs for the community, while recognizing that we need to be resilient, focus on equity, maintain our outstanding workforce, and combat the effects of climate change."

View the FY 2025 Proposed Budget Overview Infographic

Existing office property values decreased by 11 percent due to continued pressure of vacancy rates and changing demand for office space but were partially offset by new construction. The County continues to focus on the Commercial Market Resiliency Initiative (CMRI) 2.0 to support this sector of our local economy, with investments to increase capacity to review and draft changes to the zoning ordinance and efforts to change the urban dining and retail environment.

Investments in the Community

The proposed FY 2025 budget is the result of months of study, evaluation, and input from the public. Core investments in the proposed budget include:

Budget Engagement Process

The County Manager collected feedback from the community on approaches to balancing the budget including which services and programs should be kept as top priorities through an online form and in-person pop-up engagement opportunities. Over 3,400 participants weighed in on the budget, either online or in-person, and the feedback helped the County Manager determine where to apply resources. View the Engagement Overview.

Tax Rate & Next Steps

During the Tuesday recessed meeting on Feb. 27, 2024, the County Board will hold a public hearing and consider authorizing advertisement of the proposed real estate, personal property, and Business Improvement District Calendar Year 2024 tax rates, as well as proposed fee changes for FY 2025. Register to Speak at the Feb. 27 Recessed County Board Meeting.

Additionally, the Board will review the budget proposal and conduct a series of work sessions starting in early March. The County Board will then hold a public hearing for the budget on Tuesday, April 2, and a public hearing for the tax rate on Thursday, April 4. Members of the community can sign up to speak at the public hearings in-person or virtually; registration to sign up opens five business days prior to the hearing dates. Visit the County Board Webpage to sign up as a speaker.

The final vote on the FY 2025 operating budget is scheduled for Saturday, April 20. The fiscal year begins on July 1, 2024.

Learn more about the FY 2025 Budget at arlingtonva.us/fy2025.