The western Coachella Valley will likely end up receiving around an inch of rain as an atmospheric river moves through Southern California on Thursday and early Friday, a National Weather Service meteorologist says.
Meteorologist Chandler Price said rain that has been falling on and off in Palm Springs and other western and central portions of the Coachella Valley would likely continue that pattern for much of the day, before becoming more consistent and intense in the evening.
“Tonight we're looking at more sustained, widespread rainfall, starting at about 9 or 10 p.m. tonight, and then that'll kind of pull through the early morning hours of Friday,” he said. “And then after that, we're looking at dry weather for Palm Springs.”
How much rain will we get?
Price said the most significant rain will likely fall on the western and northern sides of the valley, although most of the valley will see at least some precipitation.
But while Palm Springs will likely receive a total of around 0.7 to 1.2 inches of rain in the storm, Indio will likely see about only a quarter an inch and could see even less than that.
“It’s going to be much lighter the farther east and south you get,” he said.
The meteorologist explained the storm will follow the common trajectory for rain in the valley which sees the highest totals coming closer to the mountains. As a result, Price said downtown Palm Springs could end up receiving twice as much rainfall as the airport a couple of miles away.
“That’s sort of the Coachella Valley classic,” he said. “You've got these big mountains that are basically sucking all the moisture out of these clouds… As it continues into the valley, it tends to dry out quite a bit.”
But the rain received in the Coachella Valley will likely pale in comparison to what is seen further west. He said multiple inches of rain are expected in a large swath of Southern California, particularly over the mountains and adjacent areas.
How much rain has fallen so far?
As of about noon, 0.2 inches of rain had been recorded at Palm Springs International Airport while just one one-hundredth of an inch had been recorded at both Palm Desert and Thousand Palms.
The weather station in Thermal, which provides official data for the eastern Coachella Valley, has been down and not reporting data for the past couple of days, he said. But so far, measurable rainfall seemed to largely be limited to the western part of the valley, making it unlikely that there has been measurable rain in Thermal.
“It’s making it over the mountains but not too far at the current moment, at least until tonight,” he said.
National Weather Service data showed more rainfall to the west and north, with the Whitewater Trout Farm receiving about 1.03 inches of rain as of 10:18 a.m. Thursday, while 0.91 inches was recorded in Morongo Valley. The largest rainfall totals for the whole region had so far been recorded on the west side of the San Gabriel Mountains, with around 2.4 inches of rain recorded over the past 48 hours at both San Sevaine and Lyttle Creek.
Is VillageFest canceled?
The City of Palm Springs announced early Thursday afternoon that it was canceling the weekly street fair event because of the forecast. The rain will also make for a wet start to activities at Modernism Week, particularly the famous double-decker bus tours, which kicked off Thursday. Potential road closures in the washes could also create traffic backups as visitors are arriving ahead of Valentine's Day and the President's Day weekend.
What is an atmospheric river?
Price explained that the rainfall is resulting from an atmospheric river, which is “a long, relatively narrow stream of moisture coming up from the tropics.” He said atmospheric rivers are typically the source of widespread rainfall in Southern California and particularly in the desert.
“They are one of the only systems that bring measurable rainfall into the Coachella Valley, just because the moisture is so deep in the atmosphere that it’s able to get over those mountains,” he said.
Are we in a drought?
Price said US Drought Monitor data show all of Southern California is either in a severe or an extreme drought right now with the Coachella Valley being right on the border of the two designations.
He explained that Palm Springs is off to the third driest start to its water year — which runs from October through the following September — in recorded history and that January and February are typically the two rainiest months in the Coachella Valley.
“That just kind of reiterates that it’s quite late for us to be receiving that first major rain storm in mid-February,” he said.
Is more rain likely on the horizon?
Chandler said there is no way to know if Southern California will likely receive more rain as “one weather system doesn’t correlate to the next.” However, he said the outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for both the short and medium term.
Paul Albani-Burgio covers growth, development and business in the Coachella Valley. Follow him on Twitter at @albaniburgiop and email him at [email protected].