Buckle up, it could get loud Monday in Minnesota as a severe weather outbreak is being discussed as a possibility by the National Weather Service."It looks like the severe risk is going to increase on Monday/April 28th and Tuesday/April 29th from the Great Plains eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. All hazards will be possible," the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said Thursday.In the Day 5 severe weather outlook, the SPC has placed most of Minnesota in a 15% slight risk for severe storms,...
Buckle up, it could get loud Monday in Minnesota as a severe weather outbreak is being discussed as a possibility by the National Weather Service.
"It looks like the severe risk is going to increase on Monday/April 28th and Tuesday/April 29th from the Great Plains eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. All hazards will be possible," the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said Thursday.
In the Day 5 severe weather outlook, the SPC has placed most of Minnesota in a 15% slight risk for severe storms, while a chunk of southern and southeastern Minnesota and most of Iowa is in an enhanced zone where there is a 30% risk already being monitored.
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The machine learning models at Colorado State University have painted a similarly potent outlook for Monday, showing the bullseye for severe weather over Iowa and Minnesota.
"Big-time severe weather setup brewing early next week. Monday could be particularly intense from Iowa down into northeast Kansas, supercells, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible," says Ryan Hall, a weather analyst whose YouTube channel tracking severe weather has more than 2.7 million subscribers.
According to the SPC, the greatest risk for severe weather "should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening."
The wind shear at about 18,000 feet up — wind shear is the changing of wind speed and direction — is forecast by the European model to be extreme. Winds speeds at that height of 50 knots is considered strong, and the Euro model is forecasting 60-70 knots.
There will be plenty of warm air to work with.
Dew points will be surging into the 60s.
All of the ingredients will set the stage for a juicy atmosphere, with a nose of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) possibly reaching high levels of instability into the Twin Cities.
The Euro model's lightning simulation shows potential for big-time storms firing Monday afternoon and evening.
"This continues to look like a strong setup for severe weather," the NWS Twin Cities said Thursday morning, noting that "shifts can and will occur" with the forecast for Monday.