Red October is back, and the Phillies draw the defending world champion Los Angeles Dodgers in their opening matchup.
PHILADELPHIA, PA — The Phillies have filled out their dance card for the dawn of Red October.
The defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers dispatched the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card round, finishing a sweep of the best of three series 2-0 on Wednesday night. LA will come to Philly this weekend in a monumental early round clash of two of baseball's true juggernauts.
Quick reactions
This is the matchup everyone expected, as Cincinnati, who snuck in the postseason on the final day of the regular season and finished the year 83-79,was considered an enormous underdog against LA.
While the Milwaukee Brewers finished the season with MLB's best record and took home the top seed in the National League, it's the Phillies and the Dodgers, due to their pedigree, their history of recent success, and the stature of their superstars, who are the top two betting favorites in all of baseball to win the World Series, and by a significant margin.
Philly and LA are also the owners of the top two records in baseball over the past several years combined. In fact, they've been enshrined as 1-2 in the 3.5 seasons since Rob Thomson became the Phillies manager, on June 3, 2022. But they're not meeting in the World Series, rather in the NLDS, MLB's quarterfinal round, and only one of them can advance on to the National League Championship Series.
Schedule
Games 1 and 2 will be in Philadelphia on Saturday, Oct. 4 at 6:08 p.m. or 6:38 p.m., and Monday, Oct. 6.
Games 3 and 4 will be in Los Angeles on Oct. 8 and, if necessary, Oct. 9.
If the series goes to five games, it will return to Philadelphia on Oct. 11.
Game times for Games 2-5 are yet to be announced.
Pitching matchups
In Game 1, the Phillies will trot out ace lefty Cristopher Sanchez, likely the runner-up in the 2025 NL Cy Young voting and one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet right now.
He'll likely be opposed by Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani.
The Dodgers have not yet announced their rotation for the remainder of the series, though the starters of Games 2 and 3 will almost certainly be Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The Phillies will roll with all lefties: Ranger Suarez will start Game 2, and then Jesus Luzardo in Game 3. Sanchez would likely get the ball again if the series went to a do-or-die Game 5.
How they match up
The Phillies went 4-2 against the Dodgers this year, winning a 2-1 series in early April in Philly and then going 2-1 again in September in LA, which effectively clinched the second seed in the National League.
That success has extended for several years: the Phillies are 15-10 against the Dodgers overall since 2022, and they're 7-2 at home since the start of 2023.
Keys to the series
The Dodgers have some of the best starting pitchers in baseball, along with an array of MVP-caliber sluggers that are very difficult to pitch to when they are hot. Their greatest and most glaringly obvious weakness is their bullpen. When the Phillies and Dodgers met in LA in September, Dodgers starting pitching shut the Phillies down, but they feasted on their relievers.
In a short series, the biggest question will be to what degree Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will even need to turn to his pen. Beyond the starting trio of Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Snell, the Dodgers also have traditional starters Tyler Glasnow, Emmett Sheehan, and Clayton Kershaw all healthy and available to pitch in relief.
So the Phillies probably won't be able to rely on getting to the Dodgers bullpen the way they did last month. They'll need to work big pitch counts early on, and ideally force early exits from their staters, putting pressure on that second trio of Glasnow, Sheehan, and Kershaw to pitch from an unfamiliar relief role, all under the lights of an incredibly hostile Citizens Bank Park in Games 1 and 2.
Even without ace Zack Wheeler, the Phillies rotation is still among the best in baseball. The difference maker could indeed be a lineup that has defined itself by its hot and cold streaks. But when the Phillies hitters are hot, they all seem to get hot, and when that happens they are all but unbeatable.
Odds and predictions
While the Phillies took over the mantle of World Series favorites from the Dodgers at the end of the regular season, the Dodgers dominating sweep of Cincinnati has tipped the scales ever so slightly back in their favor.
LA are very narrow favorites to win the NLDS on both FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings, though the Phillies remain the favorite to win Game 1. ESPN's MLB Futures has the Dodgers as plus 425 favorites to win the World Series, with the Phillies a close second a plus 450.
The Dodgers are hot right now, and there is a powerful inertia associated with a defending champion team, with the highest payroll in the league, that has three recent MVPs in Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts.
But the Phillies are no stranger to playing as underdogs. In fact, over the past three postseasons, the Phillies are 4-1 in series where they are not the favorites. And Red October itself has become synonymous with the Phillies toppling superteams: the Phillies took down 100-win Atlanta juggernauts in this round of the playoffs in both 2022 and 2023.
Prediction: home field advantage will be the difference maker. The Phillies get three games at Citizens Bank Park, and they'll split the two games at home and the two games away before winning the decisive Game 5 on the back of a complete game shutout from Cristopher Sanchez.
Of historical note
The Phillies also have a definitive historical advantage against Los Angeles. The teams met in the National League Championship Series during the last Golden Era of Philadelphia baseball, in both 2008 and 2009. They won both series, 4-1, en route to their back to back NL pennants.
Going back to postseason matchups with the Schmidt and Carlton teams of 1977, 1978, and 1983, the Phillies have an all time 13-9 record against LA in October.