LOS ANGELES, CA — It was after 1 a.m. eastern time in Los Angeles when the Phillies trotted out in the bottom of the 10th before a half-empty Dodger Stadium clutching to a 6-5 lead.
With two outs and the bases loaded, David Robertson got Dodgers slugger Max Muncy to bounce a grounder down the first base line. Bryce Harper grabbed it and stepped on first. The stadium of one of the defending champions and the Phillies chief rivals to win the World Series, already cacophonous for several innings with the shouts of numerous Philly fans who had remained to the end of the game, erupted into cheers.
The out sealed a wild come from behind victory on enemy turf and marked the Phillies 14th win in their last 18 games. It also clinched their second consecutive National League East division title and put them on track to stay ahead of the Dodgers for one of the top two seeds in the league that receives a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
Here's a glance at what the playoff picture looks like today and what could be in store for the Phillies this coming Red October.
Playoff Positioning, Schedule
The Phillies are currently just 1.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the top seed in the National League and the best record in all of baseball. Their win over LA Monday night took them 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers, who are the third seed. With just 11 games left in the regular season, the Phillies look almost certain to finish in the top two, which would give them a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The third seeded Dodgers would then face the sixth seeded New York Mets, who are clutching on to the final playoff spot after a long and precipitous collapse over the past two months. The Phillies would play the winner of that series in the National League Divisional Series.
Meanwhile, the other Wild Card series, currently shaping up as the fourth seeded Chicago Cubs against the San Diego Padres, would send its winner to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.
Dates to know:
Does the rest of the season matter?
To a degree. The Dodgers could still technically come back and take the first round bye from the Phillies, but it would mean they would need to win most of their remaining games, and the Phillies would need to lose most of their remaining games. It's highly unlikely.
Assuming the Phillies clinch a bye, the only other thing to play for is the best record in the National League (and by default, all of MLB). If they finish with a better record than the Brewers, they would guarantee home field advantage against Milwaukee in a potential NLCS between the two.
Still, with the division locked up, expect a few regulars to get rest over the final days of the season. And expect the Phillies to tinker the order of their pitching rotation so that ace Cristopher Sanchez is set to go for Game 1 of the NLDS.
Who is the favorite to win the World Series?
ESPN Bet has the Phillies at the second best odds to win the World Series, at plus 500. They're just behind the Dodgers, at plus 450. Similarly, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Phillies in second at plus 550, with a more generous plus 420 lead for the Dodgers.
However, the Dodgers lost 30 points, and the Phillies gained 50 points, after their win late Monday. night.
And the Fightins are on a sharp upward trajectory. As recently as the All Star break in early July, the Phillies sat around fourth or sixth in the odds, with bettors giving them around plus 1000 odds, depending on the sportsbook. It's all been uphill since then, especially in the midst of their recent red hot stretch, as they've gone 7-1 in their last 8 games and 14-4 since they were swept by the Mets on Aug. 28.
Gambling odds, of course, are not the most reliable or informative way to look at actual, non-betting favorites. Odds are often determined by a combination of factors, including how good a given team was expected to be heading into the year, the number of superstars they have, the size of the city they play in and their corresponding name recognition, and then, of course, their current performance.
Is there a preferred opponent?
The Phillies match up well against just about everyone. They're 3-1 so far this year against the Dodgers, and shouldn't be afraid of the defending champions any more. If it's the Mets, they were utterly dominant in a four game sweep over them in the first week of September. The Phillies have some troubled history at Citi Field in New York, but since they have home field advantage, they technically wouldn't need to win a single game there to advance.
Less important than a specific opponent is home field advantage. The Phillies have the best home record in MLB, by far, and that dominance extends to the playoffs, where the terrifying Red October atmosphere has propelled them over the past four years.
How many more, JT?
In the clubhouse moments after the game had ended Monday. night, manager Rob Thomson gave a brief speech congratulating everyone. As shown on the NBC Sports Philadelphia broadcast, he then repeated the question he has asked JT Realmuto during previous playoff runs: how many more wins to go?
"Whatever the hell it takes," Realmuto roared, and the clubhouse exploded.