The Nuggets can’t shoot their way back to the NBA Finals with a Broken Arrow.
When last we saw Jamal Murray in a game that counted, Game 6 of an ill-fated first-round loss to Minnesota in the NBA Playoffs, the Nuggets’ guard was shooting his team into oblivion on the road: 17 attempts, 13 misses. Two trey attempts, both missed. The Blue Arrow scored 12 points, the Nuggets scored 98, and the Timberwolves suffered one of the most painful playoff series losses in Denver franchise history.
Fast forward six months to this past Thursday night in Oklahoma City, in the Nuggets’ ’26-27 season-opener against the Thunder. More shooting, more oblivion: 11 attempts, nine misses. One trey attempt that missed. The Blue Arrow scored six points, the Nuggets scored 84, and the Thunder scored a statement win a week before Halloween.
Is the Grading The Week (GTW) team panicked? No, sir. It’s one game. It’s late October. Miles to go, yet.
But are we worried? A little. OK, more than a little.
The Arrow’s got miles left on those legs. He won’t turn 30 until February. But why does it feel as if the cream of the Western Conference has figured No. 27 out? And coach David Adelman doesn’t have a counter ready against the big boys?
Your eyes don’t lie. And neither do the stats.
• Murray’s last nine games against Oklahoma City, including the postseason: 20.9 ppg, 5.8 assists per game, 2.9 turnovers per game, 38.4% shooting from the floor, 28.6% shooting on treys.
• Murray’s last nine games against Minnesota, including the postseason: 25.0 points per game, 6.7 assists per game, 2.6 turnovers per game, 37.1% shooting from the floor, 31.9% shooting on treys.
• Murray’s last nine games against San Antonio: 23.4 points per game, 6.9 assists per game, 2.6 turnovers per game, 47.6% shooting from the floor, 39.6% shooting on treys.
You might avoid one of those two franchises in a given playoff bracket. But you probably won’t avoid all three.
The Nuggets have become awfully hard to watch against their fellow big boys in the West. Too many Nikola Jokic treys from the top of the arc. Too darn many turnovers — especially on Murray’s part. Too many injuries. Too many little coaching mistakes, such as the one Adelman made that saw the refs deny him a challenge in the first half.
Some numbers lie, but these don’t. Since October 2025, the Nuggets are 9-11 in games, regular-season and postseason, when Murray scores 19 points or fewer. They’re 51-21 when he’s at 20 points or more. That’s a 45% winning percentage with “meh” Jamal versus a 71% clip when he’s scoring at “All-Star” form. That’s 37 regular-season wins with the former as opposed to 58 victories with the latter.
The Nuggets are fine. They’re … just … fine. It’s the best and worst thing about them, as currently constructed. Just Jokic and Murray, as a pair, are worth 44-50 wins in any given regular season, at least for a few more years.
But the clock’s ticking. And the Nuggets are trapped by the salary cap. They’re paying Murray, who’s slated to make $50.1 million (30.4% of their cap) this season and $53.8 million next year (30.6%), to be their Steph Curry, to be a star threat, to be a Batman next to the Joker. And nobody’s banging down doors to take that contract off your hands, either.
OKC is nasty, granted. Yet the Nuggets on Thursday looked an awful lot like the version we left in Minneapolis. And many Nuggets fans, frankly, wanted to leave that version in the Twin Cities.
“Joker’s gotta get some help on the boards. But him and Murray didn’t play well (Thursday),” ESPN/Inside The NBA analyst Charles Barkley said after the game. “Listen, it’s just one game. But man, (OKC) is THE team to beat in the NBA.”
The Thunder are for real. How real are the Nuggets? They’ll probably go as far as Murray does. And we’re already starting to worry that it’s not much farther than last spring.
A GTW salute to legendary former DU lacrosse coach Bill Tierney, who’s recovering at home after a heart-related health issue that required surgery last week, according to the Pios’ athletic department.
Tierney, a decade ago, became the first lacrosse coach in NCAA history to lead two different collegiate programs to national championships, steering DU to its first title in 2015.