UPDATE: 5 p.m.
Hurricane Fausto maintained its strength today just before entering the Central Pacific but weather officials have adjusted its forecast track further north and expect it to pass the Hawaiian islands as a weakening tropical storm on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As of 5 p.m., Fausto remained a Category 2 storm with 100 mph maximum sustained winds, centered about 1,060 miles from Hilo and moving west at 13 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin soon and continue for the next several days with the tropical cyclone entering the Central Pacific early Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane, and passing north of Oahu Wednesday as a weak tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
The latest five-day forecast map now has only Kauai and Niihau in the so-called cone of uncertainty, indicating that other islands are no longer threatened with a possible direct hit.
“Based on the predicted sheared nature of the storm, the risk of sustained tropical-force-winds on land should be low as long as the forecast track stays north of the islands,” hurricane center forecasters said in the 5 p.m. update. “Interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.”
Fausto’s biggest impact on the islands is expected to surf, they said.
“Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents,” forecaster said. “Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area.”
In the meantime, a high surf advisory is in effect for south shores of all islands through 6 a.m. Sunday due to a separate south swell. Large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet are hitting south shores of all Hawaiian islands.
11:45 a.m.
Hurricane Fausto continued to maintain its Category 2 strength today as it nears the Central Pacific but weather officials expect it to be a weakening tropical storm as it passes north of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday.
At 11 a.m., Fausto had 100 mph maximum sustained winds, centered 1,140 miles east of Hilo and moving west at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles, forecasters said.
But gradual weakening is expected to begin over the next several days with the tropical cyclone entering the Central Pacific overnight as a Category 1 hurricane and passing north of Oahu Wednesday as a weak tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
”As Fausto moves toward the Hawaiian islands, the wind field is predicted to shrink and become asymmetric, with the strongest winds becoming displaced to the northern side of the circulation,” forecasters said.
The latest five-day forecast map only has Oahu, Kauai and Niihau on the southern end of its so-called cone of uncertainty, indicating that the eastern islands are no longer threatened with a possible direct hit.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for the islands but officials continue to warn about dangerous high surf for east shores as Fausto approaches, starting Sunday on the eastern islands and spreading west through early next week.
“While the chances of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall remaining offshore north of the islands are increasing, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto,” the hurricane center said in the latest update.
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Fausto remained a Category 2 hurricane overnight but is still expected to be a “weakening, sheared tropical storm” as it passes near Hawaii early next week, forecasters said today.
At 5 a.m., Fausto had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and was centered about 1,200 miles east of Hilo and moving west at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles, forecasters said.
Fausto will be a Category 1 hurricane when it crosses into the Central Pacific by early Sunday as it begins its weakening trend.
“All of the guidance continues to support gradual weakening over the next several days as Fausto moves over marginal sea-surface temperatures and into an even drier environment,” forecasters said. Fausto is also expected to “encounter increasing southwesterly shear while it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, which will displace the convection and strongest winds to the northern side of the circulation.”
The latest five-day forecast track has Fausto moving just north of the islands starting Tuesday, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, and moving past Kauai by Thursday.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu warned that subtle shifts in the storm’s track or intensity may lead to significant forecast changes in island-by-island weather impacts. They urge the public to pay close attention to the forecast over the next few days.
As of this morning, possible Fausto impacts include high surf above advisory thresholds for eastern shores from late Sunday through Tuesday.
“These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
As the storm gets closer to Hawaii, strong winds of around 40 mph, with stronger gusts, may develop near and north of the low center, and heavy rain is possible as Fausto moves from east to west across the region from Tuesday through Wednesday, weather service forecasters said.
There’s “no time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness plans and ensure every household has at least a 14-day supply of food and water available if needed during this year’s active hurricane season,” forecasters said.
In the meantime, a high surf advisory is in effect for south shores of all islands through 6 a.m. Sunday due to a separate south swell.
Large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet are hitting south shores of all Hawaiian islands.