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The rare storm made landfall along Mexico’s Baja coast on Sunday.

| Updated: 2:51 p.m.

As Tropical Storm Hilary made landfall in Baja California, the National Weather Service warned that strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across southwestern Utah, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain.

The major hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday morning but catastrophic conditions were still expected along the Baja California coast and in California on Sunday, when it made landfall before it is expected to continue north, forecasts show.

Parts of west-central Utah including western Millard and Juab counties are under flood watch until Sunday evening, according to the weather service, while southwestern Utah is under flood watch until Monday evening.

The weather service said excessive runoff could result in the flooding of rivers, creeks and other low-lying locations. Slot canyons, normally dry washes and areas near recent burn scars are also at risk.

Those with outdoor plans should monitor the weather and consider changing them, the weather service said.

Flash flooding is a relatively typical risk during monsoon season in Utah, but Tropical Storm Hilary will carry an elevated threat through Monday morning.

On Sunday, flash flooding is “possible” in Arches, Bryce Canyon, Canyonlands and Capitol Reef national parks, as well as Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Staircase-Escalanate National Monument, Natural Bridges National Monument, Grand Gulch and San Rafael Swell, according to the weather service. Flash flooding is “probable” in Zion National Park.

On Monday, flash flooding is “probable” in all five national parks, plus Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument and San Rafael Swell. Flash flooding is “possible” in Natural Bridges National Monument and Grand Gulch, according to the weather service.

Gusty winds are expected to develop over the southwest part of the state and then spread north and west Sunday night and into Monday, the weather service advised. South winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected, with some gusts up to 60 mph, and will decrease throughout the day Monday.

Southwest Utah and western Millard and Juab counties are also at risk for high winds, especially along Interstate 15 south of Cedar City and north of Blackrock Canyon, the weather service advised. A high wind warning is in effect from 11 p.m. Sunday to about 3 p.m. Monday.

Because of the wind risk, the weather service said travel on Interstate 80 and I-15 will be difficult for high-profile vehicles. Power outages also are possible, and people should secure outdoor objects like trampolines and garbage cans.

St. George is under a flood watch through Monday night, the weather service said, with heavy rain starting Sunday afternoon. Unpredictable weather is expected through at least Wednesday night. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected in southern Utah on Sunday afternoon and evening, with an isolated chance (2%) of tornadoes within 25 miles of St. George, according to the weather service.

In Salt Lake City, there is a slight chance of showers on Sunday and evening thunderstorms. Unpredictable weather is expected through at least Thursday, the weather service said.

SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) – Happy Sunday, Utah! Active skies remain over much of the state as the surge of tropical moisture from Hurricane Hilary slides through the Western U.S.

The storm’s path directs the densest tropical moisture just west of the state. However, significant moisture is still forecast along areas of Utah, particularly along and west of I-15. The western half of the state has a good chance of seeing storms while the southwest region has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

A good portion of southwest Utah finds itself facing an increased risk of flooding today, with a Flood Watch in effect until Sunday evening. This alert extends from west central Utah down to the southwestern regions. Vulnerable areas include slot canyons, dry washes, burn scars, and low-lying urban zones. The “Probable” risk of Flash Flooding persists only in Zion National Park today with all other recreational areas forecast as “Possible.” It’s advisable to avoid backcountry hikes this afternoon and evening.

Beyond the wet weather, the forecast presents partly cloudy skies in northern Utah, while the southern part will experience partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Daytime temperatures will resemble those of yesterday. For most areas, this means daytime highs ranging mainly in the 80s and 90s. Along the Wasatch Front, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s, while southern Utah will see mainly upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon.

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As Hilary continues to decay and slide north into next week, strong winds are expected along the western side of the state. High winds are expected Monday afternoon and evening for areas west of I-15 with wind alerts in place. Winds of 25-35 mph are possible while gusts could be as high as 60 mph. This will make travel difficult for high profile vehicles, as well as reduce visibility in areas of blowing dust and debris. In addition to the wind, showers and thunderstorms will be expected across much of the state and a moist southerly flow will remain in place.

After Hilary, high pressure to the southeast will continue to tap into sub-tropical air and keep potential storms in the forecast throughout much of the week with cooler than normal temperatures as well.

Bottom line?! Flash flooding remains a concern Sunday followed by strong winds early in the week.

Stay on top of the latest weather changes with Utah’s 4Warn Forecast both on-air and online! We are Good4Utah!

Hurricane Hilary grew to a Category 4 storm Friday, putting parts of southern California under a tropical storm watch for the first time ever.

And as it moves across the Southwest, parts of California and Nevada could see multiple years’ worth of rain in a matter of days.

It’s still too early to tell exactly what impact the storm will have on Utah — but heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely across the state this weekend.

“For Utah, our biggest impacts are going to be the tremendous amount of moisture that’s moving north into the desert Southwest ahead of that hurricane,” said Christine Kruse, Salt Lake lead meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

Heavy rain from Hilary could bring widespread flooding to Mexico’s Baja California state starting Friday and continuing into Sunday. The National Weather Service is expecting hurricane force winds in the area, which could impact much of southern California as well, spreading north during the weekend.

Utah is currently in a monsoon surge, mostly impacting southern parts of the state — Utah’s desert canyons, washes, national parks and other high risk areas could see flooding through Friday. That monsoon surge will transition into moisture from Hurricane Hilary on Saturday.

By Saturday evening, much of Utah will begin to see heavy rain — residents living east of the Wasatch Mountains along the western part of the state will see the most perception, Kruse said. The rain could persist until Tuesday, with thunderstorms.

If the moisture moves further into central and eastern Utah, that will likely result in unusually intense rain. It’s too early to tell what to expect, but Kruse said parts of Nevada and California could have a whopping two years worth of precipitation in one week.

“We’re talking about some pretty historic flooding potential there,” Kruse said.

She said it’s a low probability for that to happen in Utah, “but it’s something that we’re monitoring because it’s within the realm of possibility.” By Saturday afternoon, meteorologists should have a clear picture of what to expect in the Beehive State.

That means stay away from small streams, slot canyons, burned forests, normally dry washes and other places prone to flooding. The risk is heightened for places like Cedar City, which experienced heavy flooding on Thursday evening. Follow alerts from the Salt Lake National Weather Service office to stay updated.

And if your street does flood, remember the saying “turn around, don’t drown.” It only takes six inches of water to move a car — a foot of water can push a car into the wash, a potentially fatal situation that could require a rescue.

SALT LAKE CITY (KUTV) — Not much has changed in the track of Hurricane Hilary.

By Saturday morning, we were seeing drier air being ingested into the western half of the storm.

As it heads north into cooler waters, it will begin to weaken. Hilary is forecasted to make landfall as a low-end Category 1 hurricane or tropical storm near the northern portion of Baja California towards San Diego by Sunday afternoon and evening. Around 8:30 a.m. Aug. 19, storms on the northern edge of the hurricane were already visibly pushing into the southwest desert of California and Arizona.

MORE On Hurricane Hilary:

The main impacts from Hilary are expected to be inland flooding as this massive storm will likely interact with the mountainous desert terrain of the area. Places such as Palm Springs may see two-to-three years worth of rain in just a couple days. Flash flooding, debris and mud flows will be expected in the coming days. The wind threat will likely be contained to the immediate coast as well as in some mountain passes of southern California.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UTAH:

Areas under a Flood Watch, including Nevada, the West Desert, and southwest Utah will likely see the most substantial impact from this storm, especially on and near mountainous terrain. Officials of the National Weather Service said that flooding will likely peak through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Officials advised to avoid slot canyons, dry washes, as well as all other low-lying areas, at these are at high risk for flooding.

The low pressure to our west and high pressure to our east region means continued summer-monsoon thunderstorms out of the south.

Anomalous moisture, in the atmosphere, dragged in by Hilary is expected to cause some thunderstorms to produce isolated, brief heavy rain threats across much of the state through the end of the weekend. NWS stated that Utah will see the heaviest rainfall amounts as a result of Hilary on Sunday, Aug. 20, and Monday, Aug. 21. Amounts are expected to vary between 1 and 3 inches across the state, with the possibility of higher amounts in southern and central Utah.

Sustained 25 to 3 5mph winds on Monday will also be expected as the system passes to our west. There is a very good chance for additional Flash Flood Warnings to pop up during the afternoon times through Monday.

A HIGH WIND WATCH has been posted for Monday for the western half of Utah where we could see those 35 to 35 mph winds and gusts as high as 60 mph.

A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for much of southern and central Utah through at least Saturday evening. Some northern and northeastern mountains are also under this watch.

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KSL.com

UPDATE: Hilary has been downgraded to a tropical storm since this article was published. Though, it still poses major threats to some areas of deadly rainfall along the western U.S.. Estimates on its impact in Utah as detailed below should still be precautioned.

SALT LAKE CITY — Hurricane Hilary is expected to provide significant rainfall in parts of the West as it makes landfall this weekend, and will likely have both direct and indirect impacts on Utah over the next few days.

The storm system formed into a tropical storm on Wednesday before developing into a hurricane Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It quickly strengthened into a Category 4 storm by Friday morning as it spins off the coast of the Baja California peninsula in Mexico.

The center projects the storm to make landfall in Mexico as early as Saturday night before moving north into the U.S., reaching Southern California as early as Sunday, possibly remaining a tropical storm at that time. The National Weather Service on Friday issued a tropical storm watch for the region, advising that 1 to 8 inches or more of rain is possible in places throughout the region as it makes landfall.

If it remains as strong as it is currently forecast, it would be the first tropical storm to reach Southern California in 84 years, the Associated Press reports.

Where Hilary may impact Utah

Hurricane Hilary’s remnants are expected to continue to move north as it weakens.

Some parts of Utah are in line to potentially receive moisture tied to the storm. The National Hurricane Center’s moisture model, updated Friday morning, shows that parts of southwestern Utah, including St. George, Cedar City and Zion National Park, are in line to potentially receive up to 2 inches of rain from its remnants as it moves north.

8am PDT Fri Aug 18 Key Messages for Hurricane #Hilary: There is the potential for rare and dangerous flooding impacts from heavy rainfall across portions of the Southwestern U.S. this weekend. https://t.co/Oy8uoeRKme pic.twitter.com/8wAlt80Bi7

— NHC Eastern Pacific (@NHC_Pacific) August 18, 2023

KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson says these areas will likely receive “light to moderate” but steady rainfall because of how far out it is from Hilary’s center. If that’s the case, it will be different from the traditional scattered downpours tied to summer monsoons.

The storm is expected to provide heavy rainfall throughout Nevada and western Arizona, as well. Johnson adds that it all depends on the path Hilary takes over the next few days, meaning that direct storm rainfall could end up skipping Utah, or that more parts of the state may be impacted.

“That’s something we’ll have to watch because if the center of the track shifts a little further east, St. George, Kanab, points further north and east can tap into more of that rain,” he said. “As it stands, that track will hit southern California and we’re kind of on that northeast side (of the storm system).”

Hilary’s indirect impacts on Utah

Either way, Utah is expected to experience at least some impacts tied to the storm, though a little more indirectly.

Every tropical disturbance creates a “huge swath” of deep tropical water vapor that surrounds the system, as is the case with Hurricane Hilary, Johnson explains. That tropical water vapor is forecast to end up in Utah as early as Saturday, increasing the amount of vapor already in play from the monsoonal moisture that has impacted the state over the past week.

Friday afternoon update on the current monsoonal moisture surge into the forecast area and expected future impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Hilary… Primary concerns are for flash flooding in portions of southern and central Utah as well as northern Utah burn scars. #utwx pic.twitter.com/GwnlYmgX6G

— NWS Salt Lake City (@NWSSaltLakeCity) August 18, 2023

Johnson said it would “juice up” the existing monsoonal vapor that develops into scattered showers and thunderstorms. This means some areas could receive significant monsoonal rainfall, elevating flash flood risks this weekend. Other areas could be skipped because some added cloud cover may lessen the moisture that falls.

“We’ll probably tap into that. It’ll feel quite muggy,” he said. “The storms are already packing a punch, but it’s just going to reinforce the monsoon that we already have. … The amount of water vapor available to make these thunderstorms is at a surplus.”

While Hilary will move out by early next week, the monsoonal pattern is forecast to end anytime soon. There’s a decent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state every day for most of next week, with the strongest probabilities in southwest Utah.

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