Home Care In Tropic, UT

SALT LAKE CITY (KUTV) — The National Hurricane Center released an advisory confirming the formation of a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific that could make landfall in Mexico. Despite being nearly 1,000 miles from Utah, the storm could have a major impact on weather in the Beehive State.

Tropical Storm Hilary formed Wednesday morning off the west coast of Mexico. This storm is expected to become a hurricane – and may even become a major hurricane in the coming days.

Eventually, it will weaken as it hits the colder waters off the coast of Baja California, but it could still significantly impact our weather in Utah over the weekend and into next week.

The extent that it impacts Utah's weather depends on the track the storm takes, and that part of the forecast is still a little unclear.

As of Wednesday morning, here are the two scenarios and what each would mean for Utah’s weather.

Scenario #1 – Widespread Heavy Rain In Utah

If Tropical Storm Hilary follows the National Hurricane Center's projected path, it could make landfall as a tropical storm or extratropical cyclone near Ensenada, Mexico by early next week.

This path would bring significant tropical moisture into the Desert Southwest over the weekend and early next week resulting in widespread heavy rain.

Flash flooding would be likely in flood-prone areas if this scenario were to play out.

Scenario #2 – Scattered Thunderstorms

Some of the other data suggests that this storm will move a little farther to the west, keeping the core of the storm away from Baja California.

If this track were to play out, only a little tropical moisture from this storm would make its way into the Desert Southwest.

This would result in scattered thunderstorms rather than widespread thunderstorms.

Some of those individual storms could still produce heavy rainfall that could result in flash flooding, but it wouldn't be widespread like it could be in Scenario #1.

The 2News First Alert Weather Team will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Hilary and its projected path.

We will keep you updated on air, online and on the 2News Mobile Weather App as the track of this storm becomes more certain, and the effects on Utah become clear.

The rare storm made landfall along Mexico’s Baja coast on Sunday.

As Tropical Storm Hilary made landfall in Baja California, the National Weather Service warned that strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across southwestern Utah, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain.

The major hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday morning but catastrophic conditions were still expected along the Baja California coast and in California on Sunday, when it made landfall before it is expected to continue north, forecasts show.

Parts of west-central Utah including western Millard and Juab counties are under flood watch until Sunday evening, according to the weather service, while southwestern Utah is under flood watch until Monday evening.

The weather service said excessive runoff could result in the flooding of rivers, creeks and other low-lying locations. Slot canyons, normally dry washes and areas near recent burn scars are also at risk.

Those with outdoor plans should monitor the weather and consider changing them, the weather service said.

Flash flooding is a relatively typical risk during monsoon season in Utah, but Tropical Storm Hilary will carry an elevated threat through Monday morning.

On Sunday, flash flooding is “possible” in Arches, Bryce Canyon, Canyonlands and Capitol Reef national parks, as well as Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Staircase-Escalanate National Monument, Natural Bridges National Monument, Grand Gulch and San Rafael Swell, according to the weather service. Flash flooding is “probable” in Zion National Park.

On Monday, flash flooding is “probable” in all five national parks, plus Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument and San Rafael Swell. Flash flooding is “possible” in Natural Bridges National Monument and Grand Gulch, according to the weather service.

Gusty winds are expected to develop over the southwest part of the state and then spread north and west Sunday night and into Monday, the weather service advised. South winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected, with some gusts up to 60 mph, and will decrease throughout the day Monday.

Southwest Utah and western Millard and Juab counties are also at risk for high winds, especially along Interstate 15 south of Cedar City and north of Blackrock Canyon, the weather service advised. A high wind warning is in effect from 11 p.m. Sunday to about 3 p.m. Monday.

Because of the wind risk, the weather service said travel on Interstate 80 and I-15 will be difficult for high-profile vehicles. Power outages also are possible, and people should secure outdoor objects like trampolines and garbage cans.

St. George is under a flood watch through Monday night, the weather service said, with heavy rain starting Sunday afternoon. Unpredictable weather is expected through at least Wednesday night. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected in southern Utah on Sunday afternoon and evening, with an isolated chance (2%) of tornadoes within 25 miles of St. George, according to the weather service.

In Salt Lake City, there is a slight chance of showers on Sunday and evening thunderstorms. Unpredictable weather is expected through at least Thursday, the weather service said.

AUSTIN, Texas — The tropical oceans are home to the most diverse plankton populations on Earth, where they form the base of marine food chains. Modern plankton biodiversity in the tropics is a surprisingly recent development and the result of 8 million years of global cooling, according to a study led by researchers at The University of Texas at Austin.

The finding raises concerns that rapid ocean warming could force the plankton to move away from the tropics, which would negatively affect ocean ecosystems, including those of important fish such as tuna and billfish, and coastal communities that depend on them. The research was published in the journal Nature.

Using microfossils to track the history of a group of zooplankton called Foraminifera, the researchers found that the last time Earth was this warm – just before global cooling began 8 million years ago – tropical plankton populations lived in waters more than 2,000 miles from where they are today. The natural cooling of the past 8 million years that allowed the plankton to flourish in the tropics has been reversed by climate change during the past century.

“Earth’s current biosphere evolved for ice ages,” said lead author Adam Woodhouse, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics. “By suddenly switching to an Earth of 8 million years ago, we’re not just killing off a few species, we’re changing the entire chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans, and nothing is ready for that.”

To conduct the study, researchers analyzed a database of 500,000 microfossils — the largest of its kind — gathered during 55 years of scientific ocean drilling. Each fossilized shell tells where and when the plankton lived, how deep its habitat was, and the conditions of the ocean around it.

The scientists grouped the information and analyzed it alongside a geologic record of past climate change. They found that as global cooling began 8 million years ago, plankton species were pushed toward the equator. By the modern age, the most diverse plankton populations had moved to the tropics, while the poles of today became too harsh for all but a handful of specialized species.

With global temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide now approaching what they were 8 million years ago, the findings suggest that plankton species could evacuate the equator and head poleward, researchers said. Other studies of modern plankton have already documented signs of this happening. Researchers fear that the loss of diversity in plankton populations could trigger a cascade of extinctions like those seen in rainforests after logging and fires.

“The important thing now is to determine how the effect of climate change on those species will cascade across food webs,” said Harvard University network scientist Anshuman Swain, who co-led the research.

When analyzing the data, the researchers used a technique better known for investigating social structures like Twitter to reveal connections between plankton evolution, habitats and climate change over deep time. First developed to explore social interactions and friendships in sociology, network analysis is increasingly being used in ecology and environmental science and could help inform action to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, Swain said.

The plankton database, Triton, was developed and published at the University of Leeds and the University of Oxford in 2021. The current research was funded by the University of Maryland and University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, a research unit of the Jackson School of Geosciences.

AUSTIN, Texas — A group of trees that grow fast, live long lives and reproduce slowly account for the bulk of the biomass—and carbon storage—in some tropical rainforests, a team of scientists says in a paper published this week in the journal Science. The finding that these trees, called long-lived pioneers, play a much larger role in carbon storage than previously thought may have implications in efforts to preserve forests as a strategy to fight climate change.

“People have been arguing about whether these long-lived pioneers contribute much to carbon storage over the long term,” said Caroline Farrior, an assistant professor of integrative biology at The University of Texas at Austin and a primary investigator on the study. “We were surprised to find that they do.”

It is unclear the extent to which tropical rainforests can help soak up excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere produced by burning fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the new study provides insights about the role of different species of trees in carbon storage.

Using more than 30 years’ worth of data collected from a tropical rainforest in Panama, the team has uncovered some key traits of trees that, when integrated into computer models related to climate change, will improve the models’ accuracy. With the team’s improved model, the scientists plan to begin answering questions about what drives forest composition over time and what factors affect carbon storage.

Most existing Earth system models used to forecast global climate decades from now, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, represent the trees in a forest as all basically the same.

“This analysis shows that that is not good enough for tropical forests and provides a way forward,” Farrior said. “We show that the variation in tropical forest species’s growth, survival and reproduction is important for predicting forest carbon storage.”

The project was led by Nadja Ru?ger, research fellow at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig.

In addition to the finding about long-lived pioneers, the team found the composition of a tropical forest over time depends on how each tree species balances two different sets of trade-offs: growth versus survival (for example, one type of tree might grow fast but die young) and stature versus reproduction (another might grow tall but reproduce leisurely). Plotting every species as a point on a graph based on where they fall along these two different axes allowed the scientists to have a more sophisticated and accurate model than prior ones, which usually focused exclusively on the first of these two trade-offs or parametrized the groups by different means.

“To really appreciate that there is this second trade-off between stature and reproduction, and that it’s important in old-growth forests, is a big deal biologically,” Farrior said.

The team also discovered that the nearly 300 unique tree species that live on Barro Colorado Island, which sits in the middle of the Panama Canal, can be represented in their computer model by just five functional groups and still produce accurate forecasts of tree composition and forest biomass over time.

It’s not possible to directly verify the forecasts of a forest model in future decades. So the researchers did the next best thing: They seeded their model with forest composition data collected at their site in Panama during the 1980s and then ran the model forward to show that it accurately represents the changes that occurred from then until now. This is called “hindcasting.”

Next, they plan to explore how a warming world might benefit trees with certain traits over others, shifting forest composition and the potential of forests to store carbon.

“One of the biggest unknowns in climate forecasting is: What are trees going to do?” said Farrior. “We really need to get a handle on that if we’re going to accurately predict how climate will change and manage forests. Right now, they’re absorbing some of the excess carbon we’re producing and delaying climate change, but will they keep doing it?”

The other coauthors on the paper are Richard Condit at the Field Museum of Natural History in Chicago and the Morton Arboretum; Daisy H. Dent at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) in Panama and the University of Stirling in the U.K.; Saara J. DeWalt at Clemson University; Stephen P. Hubbell at STRI and the University of California, Los Angeles; Jeremy W. Lichstein at the University of Florida, Gainesville; Omar R. Lopez at STRI and Instituto de Investigaciones Cienti?ficas y Servicios de Alta Tecnologi?a in Panama; and Christian Wirth at iDiv, University of Leipzig and Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Germany.

Funding was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación.

Note to reporters: High resolution images are available for download here: https://utexas.box.com/s/bsot3zs61098jjg94are2zksgh49cavq

Florida Gators may have to escape a hurricane before they worry about Utah’s altitude.

| Aug. 28, 2023, 2:08 p.m.

| Updated: 2:14 p.m.

The Florida Gators have been preparing for Salt Lake City’s altitude.

But first, they have to navigate a storm.

Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to be a Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Florida on Wednesday. With the storm threatening to close airports, the Gators were forced to change their travel plans.

The team had planned to leave Wednesday for Utah, “at least in part due to an effort to minimize the team’s exposure to high altitude,” 247Sports reported. Instead the team will fly to Dallas on Tuesday before heading on to Salt Lake City on Wednesday, the site reported.

Due to incoming weather, #Gators will travel to Dallas on Tuesday and spend night, then on to Salt Lake City on Wednesday as regularly scheduled for Thursday night's game against Utah.

— Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) August 28, 2023

Then Florida will have to deal with another matter.

Rice-Eccles Stadium sits 4,637 feet above sea level. Florida’s Ben Hill Griffin Stadium sits at 154 feet.

Gators head coach Billy Napier said he consulted with sports scientists to see how to handle Utah’s elevation. The original plan was for his team to leave on Wednesday and play the next day without much acclimation time.

“All indications tell us to stay in your normal routine,” Napier said on Friday. “It really takes 10 days to get adjusted. Get in, get out. We’ve met with a lot of NFL teams regarding that. So we feel good about our plan.”

Napier said he isn’t overly concerned.

“I think it’s more about the football, you know?” he said. “I mean, it’s like the altitude, obviously, everybody likes to talk about that. But Coach Whittingham’s teams and the way they play football [are] ultimately more important than that.

He added: “Playing at Utah, it’s really more about the program and what they’ve established there. We respect that. They’ve got a fantastic record at home. It is an opener. It’s a red-out. We understand they’ll be at full capacity. There will be some Gators out there too, I’d imagine.”