Raleigh’s winters are warming, with snowfall down 36% in 30 years. Despite recent storms, fewer cold nights and more mixed precipitation signal a shift toward shorter, milder winters.
Posted 2/18/2025, 9:19:17 PM
The Triangle is experiencing its third winter weather event in just over a month, another flurry of frozen precipitation after nearly three years without measurable snow.
Despite this active stretch, scientists say the long-term trend is clear: Winters in North Carolina are getting warmer and snow is becoming less frequent.
In the past 50 years, Raleigh’s average winter temperature has increased by about a degree per decade, according to Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist with the North Carolina Climate Office. That warming trend means more winter storms are bringing sleet, freezing rain or cold rain rather than all-snow events.
“One or two degrees can make all the difference between getting all snow or changing over to sleet or freezing rain,” Davis said.
Less snow, more rain
Raleigh’s annual snowfall has declined by 36% since the 1960s, dropping from an average of 8 inches per year to just 5 inches today, according to historical climate data.
“We’re not getting as many all-snow events,” Davis said. “Thirty years ago, Raleigh averaged about 8 inches of snow per year. Today, it’s closer to 5 inches.”
This winter is no exception. Even with the recent snow events, Raleigh remains below its annual average for snowfall.
“Before this week’s snow event, we’re still looking at a below-normal year for snowfall, and that’s one of many we’ve had in recent years,” Davis said.
Warmer temperatures also mean shorter winters. Davis said that in recent years, December has felt more like fall, and February has often been overwhelmingly warm, signaling an early arrival of spring.
On Feb. 4, temperatures reached a record-breaking 80 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Weather Service.
“We don’t get a full three months of winter anymore,” Davis said. “Historically, that chill in the air lasted through December, January and February. Now, it’s really only January where we can count on any sustained cold weather.”
Extreme weather patterns
Even as snow becomes less frequent, North Carolina is seeing more extreme precipitation events, including heavier rainstorms and rapid shifts between dry and wet conditions.
“When it rains, it pours,” Davis said. “We’re seeing those wet days get even wetter, and those dry spells get even drier.”
That variability is a hallmark of climate change. A warming atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier snowfall in consistently cold regions and increased ice and rain events in places like the Triangle.
Davis said these wild swings between extreme conditions have become more noticeable in recent years.
“Just in the past four or five years, we’ve gone from extremely wet conditions to drought in a matter of weeks,” Davis said. “That’s exactly what we saw last fall, when Hurricane Helene brought heavy rain, and then by the end of the year, we were in drought conditions.”
Fewer cold nights
Another consequence of warming winters is the decline of freezing nights, which can affect everything from agriculture to allergy seasons.
“We had the last spring freeze in February last year, before spring had even started,” Davis said. “That’s unheard of historically, but something we’re starting to see more often.”
With earlier warming, trees and flowers bloom sooner, leading to longer pollen seasons—bad news for allergy sufferers.
“For allergy sufferers, these warmer winters are just going to cause more problems in the future,” Davis said.
A changing Raleigh winter
Despite this season’s recent snow events, Davis said North Carolina’s winters are shifting toward warmer, shorter seasons with fewer wintry events.
“Raleigh, Charlotte and the Triad have all seen their annual average snowfall cut nearly in half compared to 30 years ago,” Davis said.
Davis also pointed to Raleigh’s record-breaking snow drought, which lasted nearly three years before ending in January.
“This year has been an exception with a few more winter weather events,” Davis said. “But when you stack over 1,000 days in a row without snowfall, that’s substantial. That’s only happened one other time in our state’s history.”
Looking ahead
While some winters may still bring snow, the overall trend is toward warmer temperatures, fewer freezing nights, and more erratic precipitation patterns.
“We can still occasionally dip into the cold side of the scale,” Davis said. “But more commonly, we’re seeing those warmer temperatures on the high end of that scale, and that shift is only going to continue.”
For residents of the Triangle, that means more winters where snow is a rare event—and more February days where spring arrives ahead of schedule.
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