(This story was updated to add new information.)
As Hurricane Erin makes a northward turn, outer bands will begin to reach the North Carolina coast. The storm could bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to Wilmington-area beaches, prompting some beach towns to urge swimmers to stay out of the water. That list includes Carolina Beach, which announced a no-swim advisory Tuesday afternoon.
Farther up the coast, some areas of the Outer Banks are facing mandatory evacuations.
As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19, Erin was roughly 540 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Erin, a Category 2 storm, is forecast to substantially grow in size while moving over the western Atlantic through the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
By midday Tuesday, the North Carolina coast was already seeing impacts in the form of large swells, which brought surfers to Wrightsville Beach. Still, officials are urging caution for swimmers and boaters.
"Strong swells from Erin will impact the coastline for much of this week, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents," the National Weather Service's Wilmington office stated Monday morning.
Wilmington-area impacts through Friday include 8-10 foot waves north of the Cape Fear River, up to 6 feet south of the river's mouth, that could lead to dangerous swimming conditions and localized beach erosion. Minor flooding during high tide events along many beaches and low-lying areas along the southern Cape Fear River also is likely, the weather service warned. A small craft advisory also is in effect through Thursday, with gusts offshore up to 40 mph and waves up to 16 feet expected to create dangerous boating conditions.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring tropical waves near the Leeward Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development is possible as it moves across the Atlantic this week.
Wilmington weather radar: What to expect
Here's a look at the upcoming forecast from the National Weather Service in Wilmington.
Swimming advisories and other alerts
Wrightsville Beach has issued a no swimming advisory through Friday after lifeguards had to make nearly 75 water rescues of swimmers caught in rip currents and heavy surf Monday and Tuesday morning. In Brunswick County, Ocean Isle Beach also advised visitors and residents against swimming through Friday.
Carolina Beach announced it was removing some lifeguard stands and trash cans from the beach and allowing residents of the town's flood-prone north end to park their vehicles in town-owned parking lots and spaces for free from noon Tuesday, Aug. 19, through 9 a.m. Friday, Aug. 22.
A coastal flood advisory is in effect from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19 for the Cape Fear River near downtown Wilmington and the Battleship North Carolina, according to the weather service. Portions of Battleship Road and USS North Carolina Road could see minor coastal flooding up to one half foot. In downtown Wilmington, Water Street could experience minor flooding up to one quarter foot in depth.
A flood advisory is also in effect until for the Northeast Cape Fear River near Burgaw, according to the weather service.
A high surf advisory is in effect for the Cape Fear coast until 11 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 21. "Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions," the weather service said.
A small craft advisory is effect for the Cape Fear coast until 8 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 21. "Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions," according to the weather service.
A tropical storm warning has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck on the Outer Banks, including Pamlico Sound. A storm surge warning also was posted from Cape Lookout to Duck.
Heightened rip current risk
As Erin approaches the U.S. mainland, strong swells will increase the chance of dangerous rip currents hundreds of miles in front of the storm's actual location. That, along with beach erosion, could be among Erin's biggest impacts on the Cape Fear region.
Rip currents, the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the Carolinas, can be difficult to spot, but beachgoers should look for water that is darker in color, choppy and leaves a break in the incoming wave pattern. They form at low spots or breaks in sandbars, piling up water between the breaking waves and the beach. The water returns to sea through the rip current. Another clue may be a line of foam, seaweed or debris moving seaward.
If you find yourself caught in a rip current, do not swim against the current.
While it may be difficult to do, the U.S. Lifesaving Association says swimmers should "relax," noting the rip current will not pull them under. Swimmers should try swimming out of the current in a direction following the shoreline, or toward breaking waves, then at an angle toward the beach.
Evacuations
As of Tuesday morning, Aug. 19, there were no evacuation orders for the Cape Fear region. Flooding from storm surge is possible in some areas of the Outer Banks, prompting a mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island in Dare County and Ocracoke in Hyde County.
The mandatory evacuation order went into effect for visitors at 10 a.m. Monday, Aug. 18. Residents must evacuate beginning at 8 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19.
Are you prepared for a hurricane?
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November. Even if this system doesn't pose a threat to the N.C. coast, it's never too early to be prepared.
Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at [email protected] or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from the Green South Foundation and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.