The question is the same one that Notre Dame fans ask every offseason: do the Irish have a team that can win a national championship?
In most years during the last three decades, the answer has been no. The Irish had three teams go undefeated in the regular season in the last 15 years and even then the answer was no.
Those teams didn’t have enough talent. That might sound cold to put it in those terms, but it’s a fact that’s based on recent national championship teams.
During the College Football Playoff era (2014 to the present), there have been 11 national champions. Just about all of them have checked these boxes when it comes to the NFL talent on their roster.
As noted when I started tracking this in 2023 and then followed up with last year, it’s this:
- At least three draft picks at running back, tight end, and receiver. That includes a receiver being drafted on day one or day two of the NFL Draft (every single champion, including Ohio State) - At least two picks starting on the O-line and one of them selected on day one or day two of the draft (everyone but Clemson in 2016).
- A quarterback drafted in the first three rounds. There’s been six first round picks and two more day two draft picks out of the 11 teams. The exceptions were Georgia’s Stetson Bennett (a fourth rounder) and Alabama’s Jacob Coker being undrafted. We can add Will Howard (sixth round) to the list of exceptions.
- At least one linebacker drafted on day one or day two, which every champion had except Georgia in 2022. It’s surprising that that UGA team didn’t have a starting linebacker selected on day one or day two (Nolan Smith is considered an edge rusher, not a linebacker). Ohio State just had Cody Simon selected in the fourth round, but there’s a good chance that Sonny Styles ends up being a day one or day two pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to keep UGA as the lone exception.
- At least three future NFL Draft picks on the defensive line (every single champion and Ohio State just had four picked)
- At least three future NFL Draft picks in the secondary. Michigan in ‘23 only had two and Clemson in ‘16 only had one. Those were the only two who didn’t have three. Ohio State has already checked this box.
Those minimums (or being pretty darn close) are what fit the description of championship caliber at each position. There’s some other important amendments that I’ve added recently that also have mattered quite a bit.
For quarterbacks: every quarterback who has won the CFP since 2017 has been ranked in the top-10 in ESPN’s QBR.
The quarterback might be a future first rounder and he has to play like one. Trevor Lawrence was eventually going to be the top pick in the NFL Draft, but the key for Clemson is that he was already awesome as a true freshman. He finished eighth in QBR. Bennett and Howard were top-10 in QBR when their teams won the national championship.
Who the quarterback is and how good he will be is a question for Notre Dame and the answer will say a lot about their chances to win a national championship.
For defensive tackles: every single national champion since 2015 has had multiple future NFL picks at defensive tackle. Every single one of them had at least one day one or day two pick who was in their rotation. The average number of NFL picks at defensive tackle from those rotations was just over three per team.
We’ll get back to defensive tackle for the 2025 team.
In terms of the NFL talent quota for previous CFP champions, we can see how previous Notre Dame teams fell short.
2012 was before the CFP, but it’s interesting to see how close that team was in terms of the roster. They had several pieces, but didn’t have the quarterback or a day one or two pick at receiver.
The 2018 Fighting Irish were very talented, but didn’t have a quarterback or linebacker taken in the first three rounds. It’s also notable that the offensive line had three future NFL Draft picks starting, but they were all first-year starters. Ian Book was also a first-year starter and had not come close to realizing his potential yet.
The 2020 team didn’t have the receivers or the defensive backs. Kyle Hamilton was the only starting player in the secondary who was eventually drafted. Book was ranked in the top-10 in QBR this season and it’s significant because Notre Dame has so rarely had that level of quarterback play in the last two decades.
ESPN has tracked QBR since 2004 and the only other Notre Dame quarterback to crack the top-10 ws Brady Quinn in 2005 and 2006. (For anyone wondering about Jimmy Clausen in 2009, he was 25th)
Notre Dame’s 2025 roster has the most potential to check all of the talent boxes out of any recent team they’ve fielded. We’ll skip the quarterback spot based on what I already wrote, but let’s look at the other spots.
Skill positions on offense:
Notre Dame has a probable first round pick in Jeremiyah Love and they have another back in Jadarian Price who also has an NFL future. Eli Raridon could be someone who goes much higher than anticipated in the 2026 NFL Draft and he should be the next in the long line of starting tight ends that have had their names called in the draft.
It’s going to come down to if Notre Dame has the talent at receiver. There isn’t a single CFP champ that hasn’t had a receiver eventually selected on day one or day two. If we looked at this in November, we’d have a different answer than now. Today we know that Jaden Greathouse put together back-to-back huge games in the final two CFP games and followed that up with a great spring. We also know that they’ve added transfer receiver Malachi Fields after he put up numbers the last two years at Virginia. Fields still has a lot to prove, but he has freaky athleticism at his size and has the potential to be a day two receiver next spring if he has a monster season.
This isn’t Notre Dame going into the ‘09 season with Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, but it’s probably the best one-two the Irish have had going into a season since Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool in 2018.
Offensive line:
This one we don’t have to go too deep into other than to say that everyone should be confident that Notre Dame will have more than two NFL Draft picks starting on their offensive line this fall. This projected starting five of Anthonie Knapp, Billy Schrauth, Ashton Craig, Charles Jagusah, and Aamil Wagner could all be future NFL picks.
Linebacker:
We can keep it pretty short and sweet at linebacker as well. Notre Dame has four linebackers returning who already have made an impact. They might have multiple day one or two picks playing for them at the position this season and should have one of the best linebacker units in the country.
Defensive line:
There shouldn’t be much doubt that Notre Dame has three future NFL picks who will play on the defensive line this season. That’s led by two edge rushers, Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young, who have sky high ceilings. They are strong at edge with those two along with Jordan Botelho, Josh Burnham, and Junior Tuihalamaka. If Burnham makes a leap as a pass rusher, then his chances of playing on Sundays will go way up over the next two years.
If Botelho and Jason Onye played the entire season in 2024, they’d both be on NFL paths. Botelho would have likely been drafted this year. Now he’s coming off a major knee injury and we’ll have to see how he performs this season. Onye has NFL traits and flashes that are as impressive as any player on Notre Dame’s defense. He also sat out most of last season while he struggled with his mental health and has played less than 300 career snaps. Both players have something to prove.
Onye is part of a deep group at defensive tackle that features Gabriel Rubio, Donovan Hinish, Jared Dawson, Elijah Hughes, Armel Mukam, Cole Mullins, and Sean Sevillano. There’s a chance that Onye and Dawson could end up being drafted in the next NFL Draft, but it’s doubtful that either will be a day one or day two pick.
That means that the development of players like Hughes, Mukam, Mullins, and Sevillano are going to be huge for Notre Dame and they’ll need to see some signs that a young interior player is projecting to be a high pick at some point.
Defensive back:
Returning starters Adon Shuler, Leonard Moore, and Christian Gray are all tracking to be the next group of defensive backs who were developed into NFL Draft picks by Mike Mickens and there is more young talent who could eventually join them. I think we can safely check this box for the Irish.
Having next-level talent at each position is important and defensive tackle is going to be the second most critical position to watch this season in that regard. The first is obvious.
Notre Dame decided to roll with CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey at quarterback. They’ll need their QB1 to play at an elite level if they want to win a national championship this season or the next. That’s the good news. Most of the talent at these positions will be back for 2026 as well, which is why Notre Dame should be well positioned to contend again.
Texas had just about all the pieces on the roster to win it all last season. They checked the boxes at the skill positions on offense, the offensive line, the defensive line, and those boxes will be checked for them when players like linebacker Anthony Hill and safety Michael Taafe get selected in the 2026 draft.
The only thing they were missing was at quarterback. Quinn Ewers finished 33rd in QBR. He dropped all the way to the seventh round.
Whoever the quarterback is at Notre Dame will be supported by a lot of talent around him and if he can rise up to the same level as his teammates, then the team will be capable of winning a championship.
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