Cincinnati (5-4) visit Jack Trice Stadium to take on Iowa State (4-5) on Nov. 14 in Ames, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Iowa State Cyclones are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -1 (-160).
The Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Over/Under is 60.5 total points.
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Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Iowa State Cyclones, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Iowa State will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Cincinnati Best Bets Today
Iowa State Best Bets Today
Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Cincinnati Bearcats is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.05% ROI).
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa State Cyclones is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.54 Units / -25.43% ROI).
Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460
Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492
Cincinnati is 3-8 (.273) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .485
Cincinnati is 3-7 (.300) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .464
Iowa State was 9-3 (.750) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
Iowa State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Iowa State is 2-8 (.200) when intercepting no passes since the 2024 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .389
Iowa State was 9-3 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .628
Iowa State’s WRs gained 1,562 yards on 106 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs had 76 receptions in 12 games (6.3 per game) last season — best among Big 12 TEs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed 20.0 receptions per game last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State gained 2,657 yards on 210 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 364 attempts last season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.3% of attempts last season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s RBs has rushed for 4,947 yards on 789 carries (6.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense have allowed 4.9 YPC since the 2024 season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Cincinnati’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 9.2% of 1,010 attempts since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 9.3% of attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati RBs averaged 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (379 yards / 41 touches) on 3rd down last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
Cincinnati Skill Players have averaged 22.0 yards per reception (154 yards/7 catches) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.7
Cincinnati TEs have no touchdowns on 9 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 8.0
Cincinnati RBs have averaged 7.1 Yards per Carry (1,612 yards/228 carries) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Cincinnati WRs have averaged 17.1 yards per target (240 yards/14 targets) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.0
Iowa State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Iowa State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9
Iowa State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 1.9
Iowa State Skill Players have averaged just 5.8 yards per reception (104 yards/18 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Iowa State’s WRs gained 1,562 yards on 106 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Cincinnati has tackled opponents for a loss on just 99 of 855 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.
Cincinnati intercepted 2 of 388 attempts (194.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 38.5
Cincinnati allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.6
Cincinnati allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
Cincinnati allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (2 completions/7 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 17.3
Iowa State has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (25/647) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 7%
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.4
Iowa State has not recorded a sack (21 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15.5
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