In just 15 days, the Iowa football team returns to the gridiron.
Melrose Avenue will turn into an ocean of black and gold, tailgate parties will be in full force, and AC/DC’s hit song “Back in Black” will return to its legendary status as the Hawkeyes’ fall anthem.
The dawn of a new season means it’s time for the media to make their record predictions, which I will attempt to do in this piece. Last year, I wrote that the 2024 team “had special season written all over them” and forecasted an 11-1 campaign. That turned out to be a colossal miss, as Iowa went just 8-5.
That failed prediction isn’t stopping me from being optimistic about the 2025 Hawkeyes, which have the potential to surprise people and be a player in the Big Ten this season.
Without further adieu, here is my official prediction for the 2025 Iowa football season:
Week 1: vs Albany (8/30)
Albany was two wins away from an FCS national title in 2023, but the program has spiraled out of control since. After slipping to 4-8 last season, longtime head coach Greg Gattuso suddenly left in February to become a defensive line consultant for Penn State, his alma mater. Offensive coordinator Jared Ambrose was named the interim coach
Iowa will struggle in the early going, but will recover and cruise to victory. This should be a great tune-up game for new quarterback Mark Gronowski and the offense.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 38-7 (1-0)
Week 2: @ Iowa State (9/6)
The numbers will overwhelmingly favor Iowa State, but Iowa seems to have a knack for winning big games in Ames. The Hawkeyes squeaked out a one-point win in 2019 and rode an outstanding defensive showing to a 10-point triumph in 2021, which remains the only matchup with both teams ranked in the AP Top-25.
Iowa blew a 13–point lead at Kinnick Stadium last season, and it definitely has revenge on its mind this year.. Star quarterback Rocco Becht will give the Hawkeyes fits, but Gronowski and the Iowa offense will do just enough to escape with a crucial victory.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 24-17 (2-0)
Week 3: vs Massachusetts (9/13)
UMass has been a consistent cellar-dwellar in college football for years, and the Minutemen will now have to break in another new coaching staff. They hope Rutgers defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak is the man to turn things around, but the road to relevance, especially in their first season in the Mid-American Conference, will not be an easy one.
I’m still confused why this game will be kicking off under the lights, but it will be one final tune-up game for the Hawkeyes before conference play begins.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 45-0 (3-0)
Week 4: @ Rutgers (9/19)
Iowa is 4-0 against Rutgers since it joined the Big Ten in 2014, but the Scarlet Knights program is far from an also-ran these days. Since returning for his second stint in 2020, longtime head coach Greg Schiano has led the program to three bowl games and injected life back into a once-disinterested fanbase.
The Hawkeyes will have to travel across the country on a short week, which didn’t go well for them last year at UCLA. This will be a defensive slugfest, but quarterback play will determine the outcome. Though Athan Kaliakmanas has plenty of Big Ten experience, Gronowski is the better quarterback here.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 21-17 (4-0)
Week 5: vs No. 20 Indiana (9/27)
While I don’t think Indiana will make a second straight run to the College Football Playoff, it still has the pieces to be a very good team in the Big Ten this season. The Hawkeyes are fortunate to get the Hoosiers so early in the regular season, especially on Indiana’s first road trip of the year.
Stopping Curt Cignetti’s robust offense will be a steep challenge for Phil Parker and the Iowa defense, but a raucous crowd at Kinnick Stadium will push the Hawkeyes over the edge.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 30-27 (5-0)
Week 6: @ Wisconsin (10/11)
Iowa has won four out of the last five meetings in this series, including a 42-10 drubbing last season at Kinnick Stadium. The papers will say that the Hawkeyes should win this game, but the Badgers will be motivated to take care of business at home. Plus, Iowa is just 4-12 in road games after bye weeks under Kirk Ferentz, which includes an ugly loss at Camp Randall in 2021.
Prediction: Wisconsin wins, 20-17 (5-1)
Week 7: vs No. 2 Penn State (10/18)
Penn State has had plenty of talented squads since its last national championship in 1986, but the 2025 squad may be the Nittany Lions’ best chance to end the nearly 40-year drought.
Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, Olaivavega Ioane, and Dani Dennis-Sutton are all among the best players at their respective positions, and a loaded transfer class only adds to the ferocity of this lineup. Iowa will make this a four-quarter game, but Penn State will pull away late.
Prediction: Penn State wins, 31-17 (5-2)
Week 8: vs Minnesota (10/25)
The Hawkeyes have dominated this rivalry over the last decade, with the only loss coming in controversial fashion in 2023. That game alone should provide plenty of motivation for Iowa to come out firing at home after back-to-back losses.
Minnesota’s strong defense will keep them in the game, but the Hawkeyes will win the turnover battle and get their offense going in the second half and secure a much-needed victory.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 26-20 (6-2)
Week 9: vs No. 7 Oregon (11/8)
Kinnick Stadium has lacked a magical game for some time, and that drought ends this season. The Hawkeyes are more than capable of upsetting one or both of Penn State and Oregon at home, and the Ducks feel like the more likely choice this year.
Oregon has enough talent to defend its Big Ten championship crown, but the Hawkeyes will be fighting for their College Football Playoff lives. Drew Stevens wins it with a game-winning field goal, and it’s pandemonium at Kinnick.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 33-30 (7-2)
Week 10: @ USC (11/15)
One week after pulling off a monumental upset, Iowa comes crashing down to earth. USC isn’t expected to be a serious contender in the conference, but the Trojans will have more than enough talent to do so, and that starts at the top with third-year quarterback Jayden Maiava.
The Hawkeyes’ struggles on the West Coast are well-documented, especially in Los Angeles. Iowa’s last win in the city was a 38-12 beatdown of California in the 1959 Rose Bowl. The 2025 Hawkeyes will be a sight underdog to USC, and a slow start dooms them against a feisty Trojan squad.
Prediction: USC wins, 26-14 (7-3)
Week 11: vs Michigan State (11/22)
Michigan State deserves more love from the national media than it is receiving. Iowa fans got a firsthand glimpse of the Spartans’ potential during their disastrous 2024 game in East Lansing, and one year under Jonathan Smith should only help Michigan State’s case.
But none of that will matter on this day. The Hawkeye defense will be motivated to avenge their rough outing last year – the Spartans never punted – and come through with their best performance of the season.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 28-10 (8-3)
Week 12: @ Nebraska (11/28)
Nebraska should continue to improve in year three under Matt Rhule, but you’re better off throwing out the records when Iowa comes to town. The Heroes Game seems to outdo itself with wild finishes every year, and I expect this year in Lincoln to be no different.
The Hawkeyes haven’t lost at Memorial Stadium since 2011, and that streak will continue in 2025. These two will play another Black Friday classic, but history will repeat itself. With the Huskers driving into Iowa territory looking for the tying field goal, a late Koen Entringer interception seals the deal.
Prediction: Iowa wins, 20-17
Final prediction (9-3): So there you have it. I’ve got the Hawkeyes finishing 9-3, which would be a terrific campaign for the program. Iowa would probably just miss out on the CFP in this scenario, but the chance to have a 10-win season is still a remarkable achievement in the ever-changing era of college athletics.
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