Farmers’ Almanac is predicting what could be a messy winter for the Northeast with rounds of rain, sleet and snow this winter.
“The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns,” it states.
A map showing when the first measurable snowfall typically arrives across the country was released this month by Farmers’ Almanac. New Jersey, which is in the Mid-Atlantic region, is among the states that most often see snow in late November or December.
The Almanac calls the map a “climatological guide” rather than a forecast. But it illustrates how elevation, latitude and weather patterns push the first snow earlier or later.
The pattern would be snow arriving sooner in higher elevations compared to areas closer to New York City, although the Almanac doesn't provide a county-by-county forecast for the state.
Why is El Nin?o important this winter?
The Farmers' Almanac says El Nin?o is expected to remain an important influence throughout much of the season, helping shape where storms develop and track.
El Nin?o occurs when parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, influencing jet stream patterns and storm tracks across North America.
An active southern storm track could provide abundant moisture, while occasional intrusions of cold air from Canada could set the stage for significant winter storms across parts of the East.
North Jersey snow
Using the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist at Rutgers University for reference, the first snow of the season last winter fell on Dec. 2.
The northwest parts of the state, including Montague in Sussex County had 4.7 inches of snow. Netcong in Morris County had 1.6 inches and Upper Greenwood Lake in Passaic County had 1.5 inches of snow. The rest of New Jersey mostly saw rain.
The Almanac defines measurable snowfall as at least 0.1 inch, which is enough to seem like it’s more than a few flakes in the air.
Could North Jersey see snow before Thanksgiving? Late November is typical, notes Farmers’ Almanac. Unusually strong cold paired with the right storm track could produce snow. But that could depend on perspective. A few flakes are much more likely than anything that requires a shovel.
Records for Newark Liberty International Airport put Newark’s average first measurable snowfall around Dec. 9, according to SnowDates.com’s analysis of NOAA records.
A larger storm brought measurable snow to the entire state on Dec. 13 and Dec. 14 last year, according to the State Climatologist.
Maria Francis USA Today Network contributed to this article