The US-led trilateral framework to end the Israel-Lebanon conflict remains stalled over Hezbollah's disarmament and Israel's withdrawal, as Washington struggles to reconcile competing security demands and advance a lasting peace
Few states in the world have gone from being a maritime hub and global centre of cultural synthesis to becoming a war-torn relic of their past. Lebanon, shaped by civil wars, economic downturn and relentless conflict, is one such case. Decades of hostility between Hezbollah and Israel have rendered Lebanon rudderless, particularly in its lack of political and economic control and its inability to impose its will, whether by political consensus or by force, accentuating Lebanon's statelessness. The situation on the ground in Lebanon could not be more fraught: the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are operating at least 10–12 miles inside the internationally recognised border between Israel and Lebanon; Iran has conditioned its decision to open the Strait of Hormuz on Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon, a condition that Washington has rejected; and Hezbollah seems determined to fight. As a result, efforts by the administration of United States (US) President Donald Trump to broker a tripartite ceasefire between Israel, Lebanon and the US have been nominal at best.
The trilateral agreement signed by Lebanon, Israel and the US in June 2026, mediated by Washington to achieve lasting peace between Lebanon and Israel, remains frozen in its tracks.
The trilateral agreement signed by Lebanon, Israel and the US in June 2026, mediated by Washington to achieve lasting peace between Lebanon and Israel, remains frozen in its tracks. The agreement's primary objective has yet to be addressed; Israeli forces remain inside Lebanese territory; and Hezbollah retains its weapons. The next round of talks, scheduled in Rome, has been postponed to October.
A Deadlock Over Sequencing
The negotiations between Lebanon and Israel remain deadlocked: Israel has made Hezbollah's disarmament a precondition, while Hezbollah remains adamant that it will not disarm until Israeli troops withdraw from Lebanon. Beirut is caught between Israel and Hezbollah and cannot force either side to make the first move. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun confirmed that there are “no new talks with Israel at the present time.” To ensure security in southern Lebanon, Beirut has urged the United Nations Security Council to reconsider the premature withdrawal of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), scheduled for January 2027. Lebanon has also sought international backing for an expanded role for the Lebanese Army in exerting state authority.
For decades, the common challenge for Lebanon and Israel has been the Iranian-supported group Hezbollah in Lebanon. The militia group has significant social, political and military capability that undermines Lebanese sovereignty and threatens Israeli security. Lebanon began holding negotiations with Israel aimed at collaborating on disarming Hezbollah against the IDF's gradual withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the region, also known as the ‘pilot zones’. The framework created two ‘pilot zones’ south and north of the Litani River, which the IDF will hand over to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) until the LAF demonstrates its ability to effectively disarm each pilot zone. The IDF will also maintain a security zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah's attacks on Israel.
For decades, the common challenge for Lebanon and Israel has been the Iranian-supported group Hezbollah in Lebanon. The militia group has significant social, political and military capability that undermines Lebanese sovereignty and threatens Israeli security.
However, the IDF's incessant strikes in southern Lebanon since then have delegitimised the political dispensation's efforts to collaborate with Israel against the Iran-backed group. All three broad objectives — the disarmament of Hezbollah, a phased IDF withdrawal and the establishment of the pilot zones — remain unfulfilled.
The US-Brokered Framework
The US facilitated a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon to end the conflict and ensure the security of both countries. The agreement establishes a structured process to disarm Hezbollah, dismantle its terror infrastructure, restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and enable Israel to leave Lebanese territory once peace is restored. The agreement also creates a trilateral Military Coordination Group for Lebanon (MCG4L), facilitated by the US, to enable Israel and Lebanon to implement this framework. The US has committed significant resources to Lebanon, including US$ 30 million to improve the capacity of the Lebanese Forces (LAF) and US$ 100 million to support humanitarian assistance in coordination with the United Nations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the agreement a first step — and the hardest one — towards establishing lasting peace and security between Israel and Lebanon. The development came on the back of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran in June to prevent conflict on every front, including Lebanon. However, the Israel-Lebanon peace framework has been rejected outright by Hezbollah, which was not a party to the agreement. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem views the Lebanese state’s negotiations with Israel as undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty and argues that the tenets of the US-Iran MoU should compel Israel to cease fire in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called the deal with Israel “incitement to civil war” and warned against its implementation. The Lebanese public remains divided over the trilateral framework. Supporters view Hezbollah’s disarmament as paving the way for improved internal security, while detractors, particularly those backed by Hezbollah, have taken to the streets in Beirut to denounce the agreement.
Major Challenges on the Ground
The main issue for Lebanon and Israel is the disarmament of Hezbollah. The non-state actor Hezbollah is a powerful proxy supported by Iran's 'axis of resistance', which has functioned as a deep state in Lebanon for decades. It has dragged Lebanon into war with Israel against the will of its government and people, visible in people's disenchantment with Hezbollah, at least until the beginning of 2026.
The non-state actor Hezbollah is a powerful proxy supported by Iran's 'axis of resistance', which has functioned as a deep state in Lebanon for decades.
The continuing Israeli military operation in southern Lebanon has threatened to derail the negotiations. Although Israel and Lebanon have agreed on the complete disarmament of Hezbollah with a third-party verification mechanism, it remains a tough task for the Lebanese state. On the other hand, the continuing Israeli military operations have led to a vulnerable humanitarian situation in Lebanon, as more than 4,300 people have lost their lives, and one million people remain internally displaced.
Furthermore, the escalating war between the US and Iran has led to intense Hezbollah attacks against Israel, drawing Israeli forces to expand the self-declared military zone by up to 10 km into southern Lebanese territory. The trilateral agreement with Lebanon offers a welcome respite for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after failing to achieve substantive results through the US-Iran MoU, particularly with elections at home approaching in October. The IDF's redrawing of boundaries in southern Lebanon in the face of the underground threat by Hezbollah recently has further fed the war machine.
Mediation under Political Constraint
The culmination of the MoU between the US and Iran will determine Hezbollah's new role in the Middle East. Trump's rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal, which linked the ceasefire to Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, suggests that Israel and the US and Israel and Iran are all looking at their separate wins without much convergence. With a looming election in Israel and the midterms in the US, both Trump and Netanyahu seem politically constrained.
With a looming election in Israel and the midterms in the US, both Trump and Netanyahu seem politically constrained.
American mediation faces a test as Washington seeks to advance the negotiations it is facilitating. For the US and Israel, Hezbollah and the Houthis are the last vestiges of Iran's extended network of regional proxies, and this may be the best opportunity to dismantle them, even if it means prolonged difficulties at home. In Iran, the rally-around-the-flag effect has translated into religious and political consolidation, while years of sanctions have made economic hardship a familiar condition for Tehran. With each party constrained by its own calculations, the trilateral framework is likely to remain stuck at the table until the question of sequencing is resolved.
Vivek Mishra is Deputy Director with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
Surya Prakash Noutiyal was a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
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