Devastating flooding will likely happen more frequently and become more costly in future years and decades.
What You Need To Know
North Carolina is already experiencing that trend. Chantal just joined a growing list of tropical systems that have a caused historic flooding in the state.
On Monday morning, a section of the Haw River in the state's Piedmont crested at a record level. The previous highest crest at the Bynum flood gauge on the river was measured after Hurricane Fran in 1996.
And around two weeks before Helene, an unnamed tropical disturbance produced a record amount of rainfall near the state's southern coast including at Carolina Beach.
The flooding that resulted from the deluge of rain would be considered a once-in-a-lifetime event in the past. According to the National Weather Service, based on past climate data, the rain that fell on Carolina Beach in 2024 has a 1 in 1,000 probability of happening.
These types of flood events are happening more often though. Just seven years ago, Hurricane Florence produced even higher rainfall totals in other parts of the region. Up to 36 inches fell in some southeastern North Carolina communities from that storm in 2018.
In 2016, Hurricane Matthew never made landfall in North Carolina but heavy rain was pulled inland resulting in catastrophic river flooding that lasted for days after the storm.
Other storms without a name caused extensive flooding in some of the same areas in 2010 and 2015. There was also Hurricane Floyd in 1999 that devastated much of eastern North Carolina with flooding.
Heavier rain in a warmer climate
Tropical systems have long made lasting impacts in the Carolinas even before we have reliable weather records. However, there is a clear trend that these storms are getting wetter, and there's a clear link to climate change.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. That leads to heavier rain, even in non-tropical systems.
A study at Stony Brook University, published in Science Advances, found that a warming climate enhanced Florence's extreme rainfall in 2018.
The North Carolina Climate Science Report published in 2020 stated: "Heavy precipitation accompanying hurricanes that pass near or over North Carolina is very likely to increase, which would, in turn, increase the potential for freshwater flooding in the state."
In a project to help the North Carolina Department of Transportation prepare bridges for future flooding, researchers at North Carolina State University have been studying the impacts of future storms. A simulation based on current warming trends, found Hurricane Florence at the end of this century would produce a maximum rainfall of almost 56 inches, or 20 inches more than when the storm hit in 2018.
Flooding will likely have a more costly impact on the state well before the end of this century though.
An analysis from Climate Central found flood losses in North Carolina will cost 34% more by 2050 than they will now with some of the highest costs not only coming near the coast but also in western North Carolina.
While research has not indicated that a warmer climate will increase the number of hurricanes, the North Carolina Climate Science Report and other studies have shown that the intensity of hurricanes will increase.
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