Two fifth place, 8-7 teams in the Big 12 will face off in the Marriott Center Saturday night coming off completely different games. TCU had their lowest scoring output of the season in a 62-54 home loss to Baylor while BYU handed Kansas its first home loss of the year. The winner of this game will improve their tournament resume and get a leg up in Big 12 tournament seeding. This is a Quad Two game for BYU and a Quad One for TCU. BYU opened most places as a 5.5-point favorite.
BYU and TCU by the Numbers
TCU Record: 19-9 (8-7 Big 12)
KenPom: 29
NET: 38
Best Wins: Oklahoma (H), Houston (H), Oklahoma State (A), Baylor (A), Texas Tech (H), Kansas State (A), Cincinnati (H)
Losses: Clemson (N), Nevada (N), Kansas (A), Cincinnati (A), Iowa State (H), Texas (H), Iowa State (A), Texas Tech (A), Baylor (A)
BYU KenPom: 15
Net: 10
Record: 20-8 (8-7)
Best Wins: San Diego State (H), NC State (N), Arizona State (N), UCF (A), Iowa State (H), Texas (H), Kansas State (H), UCF (H), Baylor (H), Kansas (A)
Losses: Utah (A), Cincinnati (H), Baylor (A), Texas Tech (A), Houston (H), Oklahoma (A), Oklahoma State (A), Kansas State (A)
TCU Overview
TCU has been solid on the road this season with an overall 5-4 mark in true road games and 3-4 in Big 12 play. All three of their Big 12 road games came at places BYU lost — Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State — and they had one-possession road losses at Kansas and Texas and an OT loss at Cincinnati. A 12-point loss at Iowa State was the only road loss by more than 4 points.
TCU is the third most experienced team in the nation, according to KenPom, and regularly play eight seniors in their rotation.
Transition offense is one of the main things that sticks out about TCU. They lead the nation in fast break points per game with 19.1, well ahead of the next team at 16.5. BYU’s offense for context averages 13.2 fastbreak points. TCU has a deep stable of guards and wings that can push the ball and attack the rim. TCU is the second best 3-point shooting in the Big 12 with a 37.4% mark in conference, but their 3-point attempt percentage is the third lowest in the league and not much higher than Kansas. TCU has some big wings and looks to attack the paint.
Defensively, TCU has been middle of the pack in Big 12 play. They have the third best turnover percentage in the Big 12, but are 10th in defensive effective field goal percentage. 6-11 big man is their best rim protector and starting center, but he has missed the past 3 games with injury. His status for Saturday is worth monitoring — TCU doesn’t play anyone else taller than 6-foot-9.
Players to Watch
Emmanuel Miller, Forward — Miller is one of the top players in the Big 12. In many ways he is a cross between Arthur Kaluma and KJ Adams, two players who have given BYU troubles. Miller is 6-foot-7, 215 pounds and primarily plays the 3 and 4 spots. He has strength similar to Adams but can shoot and score more similar to Kaluma. The fifth-year senior averages 16 points, 6 boards, and 3 assists on 49% shooting from the floor and 41% from three. Miller will be handful for BYU to contain.
Jameer Nelson Jr., Guard — Yes, he’s the son of that Jameer Nelson. Nelson is a defensive menace averaging over 2 steals per game and 12th nationally in steals percentage. He is second on the team with 3.1 assists per game and averages 11 points on 27% shooting from three. Nelson has one game in Big 12 play with more than 14 points, which was a 30-point performance at Baylor in triple OT.
Micah Peavy, Guard/Wing — At 6-foot-8 Peavy is a versatile wing that can play spots 2 through 4. He is second on the team in scoring with 11.2 ppg to go along with 5 boards and 48% shooting from the field. He shoots 31% from three and 59% from the foul line, but gets most of his points from inside the arc.
Trevian Tennyson, Guard — BYU was in the final three for the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi transfer, and TCU ended up with one of the best three-point shooters in the Big 12. Tennyson averages 9 points and shoots 42% from three on just under 5 attempts per game. Some Big 12 teams have exposed him on defense, but he can light it up from the outside.
Avery Anderson, Guard — Another talented guard, Anderson was a three-year starter at Oklahoma State before transferring to TCU. He leads the team with 3.6 assists and averages 1.4 assists to form a backcourt with Jameer Nelson that can force turnovers. Anderson averages 8.6 points on 44% shooting and 31% from three.
Prediction
TCU is good. They can win on the road and Emmanuel Miller could give BYU fits with his physicality and overall skill. Guys like Richie Saunders, Spencer Johnson, Noah Waterman, and Jaxson Robinson will have a tough assignment.
This spot screams letdown for BYU, but I think being at home is the safety net BYU needs. If Udeh is unable to go, that should mean a big game for Fouss. TCU’s other fives are not overly physical and could have a hard time matching up. Even if Udeh can go, he would guard Aly a lot on the perimeter, something is not super comfortable with, and Fouss would get a lot of minutes versus the reserves.
TCU I think bounces back from arguably their worst game of the season and is a good road team, but I think BYU’s advantage at the five spot and home court advantage are enough to avoid a letdown.
Prediction: BYU 82, TCU 79