Home Care In Washington, UT

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Diversity of thought is apparently not our strong suit...

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Andrew Berg (11-2 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Texas is an excellent team. They earned their 12 wins and CFP berth. At the same time, the relative strengths and weaknesses of UT and UW tend to work out ever so slightly better for the Dawgs.

First, when the Huskies have the ball, the dominant Longhorn defensive front will be more effective against a run-heavy attack than UW’s passing preference. It’s possible that Texas gets enough pressure on Michael Penix up the middle to disrupt his timing, but with a secondary that is more “good” than “great,” I think UW’s outstanding receiver group will be able to create targets before the pressure gets home.

Likewise, I respect the Texas rush attack, but the absence of Jonathan Brooks will make a real difference in the game. Texas will score points because they have more great receivers than UW has DBs to match them.

The matchup is close. It will be decided on the margins. UW has thrived in those situations all year. Penix is comfortable in high-pressure games, which is enough to give the slight edge to Washington.

Washington- 33, Texas- 31

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Gabey Lucas (6-0 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)

Regardless of the hypothetical we’ve thrown around a bit re: “Who would win if they played, the 2016 team or 2023 team?” the thing that stands out for me coming into Washington’s second College Football Playoff is just how different this feels. I mean, sure, this whole roster of CFP semi-finalists has more parity, period versus 2016 where it felt like the other three were just sacrificial lambs to Alabama (even if Clemson went on to win it all) — but regardless, as a fan in 2016 it really did feel like just a “happy to be there, hope we make a good show of it” scenario. For the 2023 team, there really isn’t anyone in the country that scares me up against them. This includes — although I respect them as an opponent — Texas.

I will say I think if you’re a neutral fan watching this that it will be a ~very~ entertaining game. Both teams are gonna have moments of absolutely torturing the other fanbase and, tragically, that’s entertaining as hell. My primary worry is if the safeties and inside linebackers take poor angles to/shortly after the catch, especially when Xavier Worthy gets the ball because he can be so explosive with one step-and-go, or burst out of a slight angle change.

In fact, I’m far more antsy about him than the thing we’ve been told repeatedly to fear about Texas, the D-line combo of Sweat and Murphy. Don’t get me wrong, they look really good — great, even — but the film I’ve watched doesn’t strike fear in my heart in the same way that Alabama’s D-line in 2016 did. Which, hoo boy those guys...

In the end I think it’ll be interesting to see how Grubb, Penix, and the line work against this. It’ll definitely be a good challenge and I generally foresee there being some good plays by both the Texas D-line and the Washington offense.

Given the matchup, Texas winning goes through Xavier Worthy and I just don’t think, in 100 opportunities, that that’s able to be more productive than UW’s extremely multi-faceted attack. (Unless of course we revert to the “everybody has the flu and is injured” UW, in which case Texas by 30.)

Washington- 34, Texas- 31

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Mark Schafer (13-0 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

The Huskies make the trip to New Orleans, with everything on the line in the Sugar Bowl as they face the Texas Longhorns. Like every great championship fight, this deserves a sequel. On one side stands Washington, with their vaunted pass offense taking center stage, complimented by an excellent run game led by the workhorse Dillon Johnson.

On the other side is Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns with a similarly excellent pass game, led by Quinn Ewers. Everybody has been talking about what a great defensive line Texas has, and how Washington can’t play “big boy football” and how all we play is “basketball on grass”. To that I say, “have they watched the tape?” Yes, we’re a pass first team, and for good reason. We have a couple All World receivers (Odunze and McMillan) a quarterback with a cannon for an arm, and great complimentary pieces in Germie Bernard, Jack Westover and Devin Culp. Every time this offensive line unit has been doubted, they’ve stepped up and given Michael Penix time to throw. This will probably be their toughest test, but they won the Moore award for a reason, so I expect them to be ready! Expect Ryan Grubb to dial up calls that take advantage of Texas’ weaker secondary, to set up the run the closer they get to the end zone.

On the defensive side, it seems as though help is on the way, as Christian Caple reported that Asa Turner, KamFab and Tuli are all healthy, which should help a defense that was flagging in the regular season, but stepped up in a big way in the PAC 12 Championship. Add the debut of Zach Durfee, who, based on reports from his fellow players from practice, could be a game wrecker, and this might be the best defense we’ve come out with since the start of the year.

Overall, this will be a slugfest, but the Huskies have been the beneficiaries of some crucial turns of momentum and I expect that to be the case here again, and I expect Texas to be running through the briars and brambles by game’s end.

Washington- 42, Texas- 38

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Max Vrooman (11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

The last time that Washington was in the College Football Playoff it felt like they were a sacrificial lamb before a vengeful goliath Alabama team. That isn’t the case anymore. Washington is the betting underdog against Texas in part because the game is being played in New Orleans but they enter with a better record and a higher seed.

The expectation is that this game will devolve into a shootout. We already know that Washington’s offense is by far the stronger side of the team compared to their defense. That’s also true for Texas although by narrower margins. I’m not so sure though that we don’t see a few more stops than expected similar to last year’s Alamo Bowl which had a final score in the 20’s.

The one game in which Washington’s offense struggled the most this year was against Arizona State. The defining element that gave UW fits was relentless pressure up the middle as Penix was both under siege and ASU was able to get their hands on balls at the line of scrimmage. The defining element of the Texas defense is the best tandem of defensive tackles in the country clogging the middle and necessitating double teams. Expect a lot of quick outside throws to Jalen McMillan and tosses to Dillon Johnson to force them to run sideline to sideline and tire them out so they can run up the middle in the 4th quarter.

Washington’s defense isn’t at the same level as the other 3 CFP squads but they have a habit of making plays when it matters most. No team the Huskies have faced other than Oregon has the same array of playmakers all over the field as Texas. But Quinn Ewers is much less mobile than Bo Nix which should allow Bralen Trice to get a lot of pressure without concerns that the QB will spin out of it. Expect Texas to run a lot of slants and quick passing to negate the Husky edge rushers.

I fully think that one way or another this game is going to come down to the final possession. It’s impossible to have watched Washington win close game after close game and 20 in a row overall and not have confidence in them to pull it out in the end. Washington will have the ball clinging to a 3-point lead needing one more first down to clinch it on a 3rd and 2. Texas’ big DTs will be ready to stuff Dillon Johnson at the point of attack. And instead Penix will pull it out of DJ’s chest and take it himself just barely getting the ball over the marker to secure the win and send Washington the national title game.

Washington- 34, Texas- 31

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THE FINAL TALLY

Straight Up: Washington- 4, Texas- 0

Against the Spread (UW +4): Washington- 4, Texas- 0

Over/Under (63.5): Over- 3, Under- 1

Average Score: Washington-35.3 , Texas- 32.8

Jalen McMillan

O/U Receiving Yards (@ MICH)61.5

Score a Touchdown (@ MICH)+165

Score First Touchdown (@ MICH)+1400

More From UW Dawg Pound

NEW ORLEANS — The remarkable comeback of Michael Penix Jr. is a victory away from a perfect ending for Washington.

Penix passed for 430 yards and two touchdowns, and the Huskies held off Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl on Monday night to advance to the College Football Playoff title game, earning both the sixth-year quarterback with two surgically repaired knees and the beleaguered Pac-12 one last chance to go out a champion.

The second-ranked Huskies (14-0) will face No. 1 Michigan next Monday night in Houston with a 21-game winning streak, looking for their first national championship since 1991 and the Pac-12’s first since Southern California in 2004.

Washington is one of 10 schools fleeing the Pac-12 for other Power Five conferences next year, with the Huskies headed to join Michigan in the Big Ten.

But first, the final season of the four-team playoff before expansion to 12 in 2024 comes down to a Pac-12-Big Ten matchup, just like the first when Ohio State beat Oregon.

“Huskie Nation stand up,” Penix told the UW crowd in the postgame trophy ceremony. “We goin’ to the natty!”

No. 3 Texas (12-2) had four shots at the end zone after getting to the UW 12 with 15 seconds left, but Quinn Ewers missed on the last three. The final throw was a fade to Adonai Mitchell that was well-covered by Elijah Jackson.

“Those guys are the most resilient guys I have ever been around,” Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said.

In Texas’ first CFP appearance and final football game as a member of the Big 12 before it goes to the Southeastern Conference, Ewers passed for 318 yards and a touchdown. But it wasn’t enough against Penix and his array of talented receivers.

“They were a second away from playing for a national championship,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “They should be proud of themselves. Penix got hot and (Washington) made some big plays down the field.”

Penix spent his first four college seasons at Indiana, suffering three season-ending injuries, one to each knee and one to his throwing shoulder.

When his former offensive coordinator at Indiana, DeBoer, took over at Washington, Penix didn’t think twice before moving to Seattle, and then decided to take advantage of an extra year of eligibility and returned for a second year.

”He’s been on a mission since he chose to come back, and a lot of the other guys followed his lead,” DeBoer said

The left-hander stayed healthy and blossomed into a star, the Heisman Trophy runner-up this year, and now has a chance to win a national championship after another brilliant performance.

“It was the tough times. I feel like everything I’ve been through built me for this,” Penix said.

Penix went 29 for 38 with no turnovers. He completed 12 straight at one point, the longest on-target streak in the CFP’s 10-year history.

And he did it attacking down field as usual. He completed six passes of at least 20 yards, connecting with Rome Odunze six times for 125 yards and Ja’Lynn Polk five times for 122.

It was in some ways a perfect CFP semifinal for the last season before massive changes in college football: two teams switching conferences next season, led by star quarterbacks who transferred in.

A wild first half included a 77-yard connection with Polk on Penix’s second pass of the game, Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II plunging into the end zone for a 1-yard TD run, a Penix-to-Polk TD pass when the receiver tipped the ball to himself and the Longhorns capping the second quarter with a long touchdown drive to tie it at 21-all at intermission.

There was a fourth-and-1 stop by Texas of Washington deep in Longhorns territory, which didn’t deter DeBoer from going for a fourth-and-1 at his own UW 33, and converting.

Penix had 255 yards and five completions of over 20 yards in the first half alone, and then kept it rolling on the first drive of the second half, throwing a dart down the middle to Jalen McMillen for a 19-yard score.

Washington added two field goals by Grady Gross to take a 34-21 lead early in the fourth quarter. Holding the Huskies to field goals kept Texas in the game, and when Ewers found Adonai Mitchell, the Georgia transfer with two national titles, for a 1-yard score with 7:23 left, it was a one-possession game.

The Superdome sounded like Darrell K. Royal Stadium west, with Texas fans easily outnumbering the visitors from the Pacific Northwest.

Penix calmly went back to work, hitting Odunze over the shoulder for 32 yards down the sideline to set up a first-and-goal that led to the third field goal of the day for Gross, a former walk-on who was put on scholarship after hitting a walk-off winner in the Apple Cup.

That put Washington up 37-28 with 2:40 left, and had its purple-clad fans doing its best to drown out the Longhorns with a “Let’s go Huskies!” chant.

Texas kicked a field goal with 1:09 left cut the lead to six. Washington recovered an onside kick, but couldn’t kill the clock. Texas flew down the field and had an improbable comeback in sight.

But as Washington has done all season, it came through in the clutch.

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“They’ve done it all year, coming up with big-time stops in big-time moments,” Penix said.

The Huskies’ last nine victories have all been decided by 10 points or fewer.

Washington was a two-score underdog entering the Pac-12 title game and will also be the underdog against Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns are favored by less than a touchdown for this national semifinal in New Orleans.

The Huskies’ offense has been the eye-popping aspect of this team. They are 11th in the country with 37.7 points per game, have the nation’s leading passer (Michael Penix Jr. with 4,218 yards) and the second-leading receiver (Rome Odunze at 1,428 yards). Despite that offensive output and an undefeated record, it hasn’t been easy for Washington this season. The Huskies have won four in a row and seven of their last nine games by one score, but the Huskies did outgain Oregon by 118 yards in the Pac-12 title game.

Texas’ offense is also on fire lately. With questions of whether the Longhorns would get into the CFP, Texas hit the turbo button on offense. The Longhorns put up 57 against Texas Tech in the regular season finale and 49 against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. Both games felt like Texas could have scored more if it wanted to.

The absence of standout running back Jonathon Brooks due to injury is still worth mentioning, but Texas has run the ball just fine in the three games without him, averaging 207.7 yards on the ground in the three games Brooks has missed. Washington’s defense has been porous at times this season and will have a tough time with all the weapons Texas has, notably wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell.

The quarterbacks will get plenty of attention in this matchup. Penix was the Heisman Trophy runner-up and Texas’ Quinn Ewers was the No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2022 who has blossomed in his second year with the Longhorns. Ewers completed more than 70 percent of his passes and threw for 3,161 yards despite missing two games due to injury. If Ewers goes down again, it would likely be freshman Arch Manning taking over after Maalik Murphy, who started when Ewers got hurt, entered the transfer portal and is not expected to be with the team for the Sugar Bowl.

These teams met in the Alamo Bowl last year, a 27-20 Washington win.

Texas is making its first appearance in the CFP. Washington is making its second CFP appearance after losing a semifinal in the 2016 season.

All odds from BetMGM. Looking for college football tickets? Find them here.

What is the spread for Washington vs. Texas?

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How to watch and stream Washington vs. Texas

Opening kickoff is set for 8:45 p.m. ET on Monday at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. ESPN will provide coverage for the game and it will be streaming on the ESPN app.

Pregame reading

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How coaching partnership of Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb landed Huskies in CFP

Pac-12 coaches on Washington vs. Texas: Huskies’ team chemistry is their ‘biggest thing’

Big 12 coaches on Texas vs. Washington: Praise for Steve Sarkisian, Longhorns’ skill players

Texas’ Maalik Murphy transferring to Duke

Maalik Murphy’s portal dilemma is a product of a flawed college football calendar

(Photo of Michael Penix Jr.: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — The remarkable comeback story of Michael Penix Jr. is a victory away from a perfect ending for Washington.

Penix passed for 430 yards and two touchdowns, and the Huskies held off Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl on Monday night to advance to the College Football Playoff title game, earning both the sixth-year quarterback with two surgically repaired knees and the beleaguered Pac-12 a chance to go out a champion.

The second-ranked Huskies (14-0) will face No. 1 Michigan next Monday night in Houston with a 21-game winning streak, looking for their first national championship since 1991 and the Pac-12’s first since Southern California in 2004.

Washington is one of 10 schools fleeing the Pac-12 for other Power Five conferences next season, with the Huskies headed to join Michigan in the Big Ten. The conference is not going away, but its days as a potential football power are likely done.

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But first, the final season of the four-team playoff before expansion to 12 in 2024 comes down to a Pac-12-Big Ten matchup, just like the first when Ohio State beat Oregon.

“Huskie Nation stand up,” Penix told the UW crowd in the postgame trophy ceremony. “We goin’ to the natty!”

No. 3 Texas (12-2) had four shots at the end zone after getting to the Washington 12 with 15 seconds left, but Quinn Ewers missed on the last three passes. The final throw was a fade to Adonai Mitchell that was knocked away by Washington’s Elijah Jackson.

“Those guys are the most resilient guys I have ever been around,” Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said.

In Texas’ first CFP appearance and final football game as a member of the Big 12 before it goes to the Southeastern Conference, Ewers passed for 318 yards and a touchdown. But it wasn’t enough against Penix and his array of talented receivers.

“They were a second away from playing for a national championship,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “They should be proud of themselves. Penix got hot and (Washington) made some big plays down the field.”

Penix spent his first four college seasons at Indiana, suffering three season-ending injuries, one to each knee and one to his throwing shoulder.

When his former offensive coordinator at Indiana, DeBoer, took over at Washington, Penix didn’t think twice before moving to Seattle, and then decided to take advantage of an extra year of eligibility and returned for a second year.

”He’s been on a mission since he chose to come back, and a lot of the other guys followed his lead,” DeBoer said

The left-hander stayed healthy and blossomed into a star, the Heisman Trophy runner-up this year, and now has a chance to win a national championship after another brilliant performance.

“It was the tough times. I feel like everything I’ve been through built me for this,” Penix said.

Penix went 29 for 38 with no turnovers. He completed 12 straight at one point, the longest on-target streak in the CFP’s 10-year history.

And he did it attacking down field as usual. He completed six passes of at least 20 yards, connecting with Rome Odunze six times for 125 yards and Ja’Lynn Polk five times for 122.

It was in some ways a perfect CFP semifinal for the last season before massive changes in college football: two teams switching conferences next season, led by star quarterbacks who transferred in.

A wild first half included a 77-yard connection with Polk on Penix’s second pass of the game, Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II plunging into the end zone for a 1-yard TD run, a Penix-to-Polk TD pass when the receiver tipped the ball to himself and the Longhorns capping the second quarter with a long touchdown drive to tie it at 21-all at intermission.

There was a fourth-and-1 stop by Texas of Washington deep in Longhorns territory, which didn’t deter DeBoer from going for a fourth-and-1 at his own UW 33, and converting.

Penix had 255 yards in the first half alone, and then kept it rolling on the first drive of the second half, throwing a dart down the middle to Jalen McMillen for a 19-yard score.

Washington added two field goals by Grady Gross to take a 34-21 lead early in the fourth quarter. Holding the Huskies to field goals kept Texas in the game, and when Ewers found Mitchell, the Georgia transfer with two national titles, for a 1-yard score with 7:23 left, it was a one-possession game.

The Superdome sounded like Darrell K. Royal Stadium east, with Texas fans easily outnumbering the visitors from the Pacific Northwest.

Penix calmly went back to work, hitting Odunze over the shoulder for 32 yards down the sideline to set up a first-and-goal that led to the third field goal of the day for Gross, a former walk-on who was put on scholarship after hitting a walk-off winner in the Apple Cup.

That put Washington up 37-28 with 2:40 left, and had its purple-clad fans doing its best to drown out the Longhorns with a “Let’s go Huskies!” chant.

Texas kicked a field goal with 1:09 left cut the lead to six. Washington recovered an onside kick, but couldn’t kill the clock. Texas flew down the field and had an improbable comeback in sight.

“Just was looking to give my guys an opportunity to go make a play,” Ewers said of his final throws. At the end of the day, that’s all you can really do.

Washington came through in the clutch — again.

“They’ve done it all year, coming up with big-time stops in big-time moments,” Penix said.

The Huskies’ last 10 victories have all been decided by 10 points or fewer. The close games have brought doubters.

“We’re always disrespected, always made the underdogs,” said defensive end Bralen Trice, another upperclassman who returned this season to make title run.

THE TAKEAWAY

Texas: Came in with a vaunted defensive line led by All-America defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat and second-team All-American Murphy. They were tough to run against, as usual, but they didn’t get much pressure on Penix through an offensive line that was named the best in the country. Throughout the week both sides seemed a little tired of talking about the line matchup when the Huskies had the ball. Ultimately, the Huskies’ big guys came out on top, not allowing a sack.

Washington: On the Huskies’ final offensive play as they tried to burn clock, star running back Dillon Johnson was shaken up, which stopped the clock and gave Texas an extra 30 seconds or so for their own drive. There was no word on Johnson’s status for the matchup with Michigan.

UP NEXT

Texas: Will Ewers be back for the Longhorns or is it Arch Manning time in Austin? Stay tuned.

Washington: The Huskies are 5-8 all-time against Michigan, including 2-2 in Rose Bowls.

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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football