With the Trae Young era officially over in Atlanta, tonight’s 10:30 p.m. ET matchup between the Hawks and the Los Angeles Lakers won’t be another installment of the Young-Luka Don?i? rivalry. What it will be is a battle of teams in transitional periods who may not yet be done making moves for the season.
After dealing Young for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert, the Hawks have still been linked with moving other assets, including Luke Kennard and Kristaps Porzi??is, for an upgrade elsewhere on the roster. Meanwhile, the Lakers are looking for a defensive-oriented wing and have a particular eye on the New Orleans Pelicans’ Trey Murphy III, though they might not have enough assets to meet the Pelicans’ steep asking price.
When the two flawed teams face off tonight, they’ll also have a less-than-full set of players at their disposal. Porzi??is (Achilles), Kennard (neck), and Zaccharie Risacher (knee) will all miss tonight’s game for Atlanta. For Los Angeles, Luka Don?i? (groin) and LeBron James (sciatica) are both questionable and Jaxson Hayes (hamstring) is out.
Given all of the Lakers’ injuries, the Hawks are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 232.5. Los Angeles is +124 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s inter-conference battle and offer my prediction.
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
Since Young last suited up for Atlanta, the Hawks have gone back to winning ways. In their last eight games, they’re 5-3, and Jalen Johnson — a shoo-in to be named to his first All-Star team later this month — has averaged 23.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game in that span. His breakout has come alongside Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s: the Canadian has seen his scoring average jump from 9.4 points per game last season to 20.6 so far in 2025-26, and he’s also been more active on defense as of late. In the intermediate term, Atlanta’s priority should be integrating CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert, acquired from the Washington Wizards in the Young deal.
In the long term, the Hawks have to be more optimistic about their direction than the Lakers. While Los Angeles has a perennial All-NBA player in Don?i?, his brilliance is insufficient, as his 42 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, and four steals last night weren’t enough to lift the Lakers to a win over the lowly Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries — whenever Austin Reaves returns, Don?i? won’t have to single-handedly command so much of the offense, and his looks should get easier — but an 8-10 record and a negative-5.8 point differential since the start of December isn’t a good stretch for any purported contender. The Lakers haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since edging out the Phoenix Suns on December 14, though Atlanta (20-21) doesn’t qualify as that.
Losing to the Kings last night was a new low for Los Angeles, but the Lakers should be primed to bounce back. It’s highly anomalous for Sacramento, one of the worst-shooting teams in basketball, to nail 65.4% of its triples or for Los Angeles to make just 22.2% of its tries. The Kings went 12-for-18 (66.7%) on wide-open threes, a somewhat unsustainable number, and the Lakers went just four-for-16 (25.0%). But even if it gets luckier than it did against Sacramento, Los Angeles’ track record just hasn’t ben good lately: since the start of December, it has the league’s third-worst defensive rating in a sample size that now comprises half the season. Since December 11 — a span in which Reaves has played just 37 minutes because of his calf injury — the Lakers also have a bottom-10 offense. Los Angeles’ clutch bona fides are perhaps more legitimate than some other teams who have performed well in crunch time, given Don?i?, James, and JJ Redick’s collective clutch experience and basketball IQ, but it doesn’t overshadow the fact that a team with the Lakers’ point differential should be in the Play-In Tournament.
The Hawks’ key will be their effectiveness in driving to the basket. Los Angeles has had especially poor rim protection since the start of December, allowing teams to convert their layups at a league-high 72.8% clip. The Lakers have also been pretty exploitable from the non-restricted paint over that span, allowing the fourth-highest rate there. That’s one of Atlanta’s relative strengths: during Young’s earlier absence from the lineup, the Hawks attempted shots at the rim at the league’s 11th-highest rate and made 69.7% of them. That accuracy isn’t as good as that of Los Angeles, which leads the league in finishing, but Atlanta’s combination of volume and accuracy means it should be able to hang with the Lakers inside, especially since Los Angeles doesn’t attempt many layups. For their part, the Hawks have allowed a lot of attempts in the restricted area, but they’ve limited opponents to among the lowest conversion rates. Both of these teams have flaws in the paint, but in recent games, the Lakers have been slightly better offensively and Atlanta much better on defense.
Rebounding will be key. Neither team averages many boards overall, as the Hawks have snagged the sixth-fewest and Los Angeles the fifth-fewest, but by rebounding percentage, the Lakers have an edge, even in the post-Young era. Los Angeles’ rebounding advantage might be larger tonight if James ends up sitting: its rebounding percentage has actually been 1.6 percentage points higher with The King on the bench. The Lakers also have some other advantages: for most of the season, they’ve been among the league’s best at drawing fouls and at not fouling, and in the larger sample size of Atlanta playing without Young, it was even more turnover-prone than Los Angeles. On an absolute basis, Don?i? did a better job defensively against Alexander-Walker in last season’s postseason exit than Alexander-Walker did against him, though their offensive roles were much different.
As always, shooting luck remains a question, and to be fair, the Lakers have actually allowed a below-average number of wide-open threes and catch-and-shoot threes since December 1 and have gotten unlucky that opponents have hit such shots at among the league’s highest rates. Atlanta has had the opposite shooting luck: across Young’s longer absence, the Hawks benefited from opponents converting at a below-average clip, though they also do a good job closing out on opposing shooters. Offensively, their pass-heavy system has also generated more wide-open looks than Los Angeles’ more isolation-heavy approach has, though they might struggle in that aspect a little bit more today without Kennard, who ranks a solid 51st of 270 qualified players in the NBA’s new gravity metric.
For a desperate Lakers team, an opponent that allows a lot of attempts in the restricted area and isn’t an elite rebounding team could present an opportunity for a much-needed win. Though I’m skeptical about Los Angeles’ ability to pick out good shots — Don?i? has attempted among the lowest-quality shots in basketball — the Lakers’ spacing and transition defense could be better without James, whose jumper isn’t respected by opponents anymore. Los Angeles needs a win more badly than Atlanta does.
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