Short on time? We also have a quick guide with everything you need to know about Hurricane Erin. Read the brief explainer here.
Hurricane Erin continues to spin in the Atlantic and is forecast to grow even larger, with weather conditions expected to deteriorate along the coast of North Carolina and forecasters urging caution against swimming at most East Coast beaches.
According to a 5 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday, Aug. 20, Erin is located about 455 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph with higher gusts, making it a Category 2 hurricane on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Hurricane center forecasters said some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and that weakening is expected to begin by Friday, Aug. 22. Erin will remain a hurricane into the weekend, however.
Dozens of rip current rescues have already been made along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts, despite the storm still being far offshore. Local beaches are urging visitors not to swim until Aug. 22, due to dangerous conditions. It's also important to note that this warning doesn’t account for the potential contaminants and debris that could wash ashore once Hurricane Erin passes, which may take days to clear.
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NC 12 may be 'impassable' for days due to Hurricane Erin over wash. See evacuation routes
Where is Hurricane Erin headed?
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda Wednesday through early Friday, Aug. 20-22, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, Aug. 22-23.
In the advisory, the NHC said Erin "is a large hurricane growing," with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 265 miles.
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Here's the latest Aug. 20 update on Hurricane Erin.
Hurricane Erin to bring life-threatening impacts to North Carolina
Hurricane Erin is not expected to make landfall on the U.S. and is forecast to dissipate in the open Atlantic by early Saturday, Aug. 23.
Still, Erin's large and expanding wind fields mean storm-driven waves, coastal erosion and high seas are expected to batter areas of the coast, especially along the Outer Banks.
The storm’s rapid intensification has prompted increased emergency measures in North Carolina, and the Outer Banks — a popular summer vacation spot — are now under a state of emergency. Officials mandated evacuations for Hatteras Island, Ockracoke and Dare County, residents to leave by 8 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19, as forecasters warned of life-threatening rip currents, large swells, coastal flooding and road washouts.
"We cannot put this more bluntly: We now EXPECT there will be times over the next week that NC12 becomes impassable due to significant ocean over wash," North Carolina Department of Transportation said in a statement Monday, Aug. 18. "In a worst-case scenario, the highway could be closed for several days. Please heed the evacuation orders and keep you and your family safe."
In a separate advisory, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan added that "breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet plus coastal flooding and storm surge could over wash dunes and flood homes and flood roads and make some communities impassable."
“These are going to be situations where you’re not going to want to be in the ocean, and you're going to want to heed any precautions given by your local officials,” he said. “Even though the weather can be nice at the coast, it can still have dangerous surf and rip current conditions from a hurricane that's well offshore like we're going to Erin.”
NC governor declares state of emergency
Gov. Josh Stein on Thursday afternoon, Aug. 19, declared a state of emergency for North Carolina ahead of impacts expected from Hurricane Erin.
“Hurricane Erin will bring threats of coastal flooding, beach erosion, and dangerous surf conditions,” Stein said in a news release. “North Carolinians along the coast should get prepared now, ensure their emergency kit is ready, and listen to local emergency guidelines and alerts in the event they need to evacuate.”
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Hurricane Erin: North Carolina Outer Banks evacuation routes
Dare County has two primary evacuation routes: U.S. 64 West and U.S. 158 North.
Emergency management officials are urging residents and visitors — particularly those evacuating Hatteras Island, Nags Head, and Roanoke Island — to use U.S. 64 West whenever possible.
See more about evacuation routes on the Dare County website.
Where is Hurricane Erin headed? See projected path
Hurricane Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Watch: Update on Major Hurricane Erin from the National Hurricane Center
How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compared to last year in North Carolina?
While the 2025 season may seem slow compared with 2024 — when Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before its final landfall in Matagorda, Texas — Erin is actually right on schedule in terms of hurricane development.
Historically, the first hurricane forms around Aug. 11, the first major hurricane around Sept. 1 and the fifth named storm around Aug. 22, according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters say the season is entering its most active stretch. In their latest forecast, Colorado State University experts stuck to their early-summer outlook of a slightly above-average season: 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, three of them major. A "normal" year sees 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes.
For North Carolina, the season has been quiet so far, following a similar pattern to 2024.
Around this time last year, Tropical Storm Debby brought heavy rain, flash flooding, tropical storm–force wind gusts, minor coastal flooding and three weak tornadoes to southeastern North Carolina after making landfall in Florida's Big Bend region on Aug. 5, 2024, and then a second landfall in South Carolina's Bulls Bay between Charleston and Georgetown early on Aug. 8, 2024.
By late September, the state tracked Tropical Storm Helene, which caused flash floods, landslides and hundreds of fatalities fatalities after moving through the Appalachians.
So far, no storms have directly affected the state, but Colorado State researchers say North Carolina has one of the highest odds of seeing impacts from a hurricane or named storm this season — second only to Florida.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The season peaks in August and September.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected].